tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-71301921128898169692024-03-05T10:10:05.553-08:00Sabermetric Sox ReportProviding statistical analysis of the Sox Minor League System from a former member of an MLB front officeUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger107125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130192112889816969.post-63398467721547932212012-03-05T14:31:00.000-08:002012-03-05T14:31:59.614-08:00College Baseball Minor League EquivalenciesThe following is a paper I wrote in college about college baseball MLEs. Please note that this data was collected before the NCAA bat changes took place.<br />
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">In 1985 the father of sabermetrics and current Red Sox advisor, Bill James, introduced a new concept in his annual <i>Baseball Abstract</i> book. What James invented was a new way to measure and evaluate minor league players’ performances. He came up with the idea of Major League Equivalencies (MLEs) in which he adjusts for a number of external factors such as run environment, park factors, and level of competition. For example, James found that on average a player loses about 18 percent of his offensive production when moving from Triple-A to the Major Leagues. These translations are not predictions of what the player will do in the Major Leagues but rather an indicator of what he has done and how the player performed. Bill James believed this to be some of his most important and influential research breakthroughs.<a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7130192112889816969#_ftn1" name="_ftnref" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]-->[1]<!--[endif]--></span></a> Having reliable translations of minor league performance may change how front office decision makers decide whom to acquire or promote. Since James first wrote about MLEs many others have worked to duplicate and improve his work. There are now translations for Japanese leagues and all levels of the minor leagues. There are also some translations for pitchers, but these results are prone to much greater error than hitting stats.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">The objective of this research was to take Major League Equivalencies to the next level. Specifically, to introduce NCAA Division 1 college statistics and determine minor league translations to figure which statistics correlate and translate best into the professional ranks. There is simply too much noise and variation for one to translate college stats all the way to the major league level. However, once the numbers are translated into the minor league levels it is conceivable that these numbers could then be adjusted using MLEs. I set out to translate college stats into Rookie level equivalencies and Low-A level equivalencies because these are the two levels most college draft picks end up playing their first year. </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">The particular statistics I was interested in observing were walk rate (BB%), strikeout rate (K%), isolated power (ISO) and weighted on-base average (wOBA). A player’s walk rate is simply his total number of walks divided by his plate appearances. The strikeout rate is the total amount of strikeouts divided by at-bats. Isolated power is measured by a player’s slugging percentage subtracted by his batting average. It is a simple yet effective way to capture a player’s true power. Weighted on-base average is a linear weights statistic designed to measure total offensive performance<a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7130192112889816969#_ftn2" name="_ftnref" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]-->[2]<!--[endif]--></span></a>. It is weighted to an on-base percentage scale, which means at the professional levels .330 is around the average. I used the formula (slugging percentage plus 1.75 times on-base percentage) divided by three to estimate wOBA. </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">The website www.boydsworld.com has an in-depth database of college baseball statistics which I used to obtain the college numbers. The first step was to apply park and strength of schedule factors for all players. To do this, I used a methodology used by writer and researcher Kent Bonham in a series of online articles he wrote. To apply the park factor I multiplied the three-year weighted Park Factor for each team by the square root of 100 divided by the PF. Then to apply the strength of schedule rating I multiplied the SOS-number for every team by the square root of the SOS divided by 100. Basically a Park Factor over 100 implies the team played in favorable hitting environments while a PF under 100 suggests the opposite. Likewise, a strength of schedule rating over 100 indicates the team faced an above-average level of difficulty and under 100 means a weaker schedule was played. These neutralizing </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;"> I then took all college position players drafted in the first 30 rounds of the 2009, 2008, and 2007 drafts who acquired at least 50 plate appearances in Rookie level or Low-A and college the same year they were drafted. I decided to use only same-year statistics because this would eliminate noise and other variables such as player improvement in skill, strength, or age. The next step was to equalize the plate appearances since players rarely accumulate the exact same amount of plate appearances in college and the minor leagues the same year they were drafted. To do this one must create a “plate appearance factor” to multiply for each player. I divided each player’s plate appearances in college and the minors for that season, using the factor to weight all statistics according to the lesser amount of plate appearances. So if a player had 125 plate appearances in college but only 100 in the minors that same here I would weight all of this college stats by .8 (100 divided by 125) so that all things were held equal. This ensured that the total plate appearances would be the same for sample groups.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">My rookie-level sample consisted of 222 players and the Low-A sample had 324 samples. With sample sizes this large I felt good enough to move forward with the research. I had originally intended to use five years of draft data but I noticed that with three years the numbers had already begun to flatten out and I did not think any more data would be necessary.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">To create these factors I first had to sum up all statistics. These statistics included plate appearances, at bats, hits, singles, doubles, triples, home runs, total bases, slugging percentage, walks, hit by pitch, strikeouts, ground into double plays, on-base percentage, sacrifice flies, sacrifice hits, stolen bases, stolen base success rate, batting average on balls in play, isolated power, walk percentage, strikeout percentage, walk to strikeout rate, and weighted on-base average. This was done with four different data sets; rookie level stats, NCAA-rookie stats, Low-A stats, and NCAA Low-A stats. The totals were added up for each respective draft class and then the minor league numbers were divided by the collegiate numbers to create our factors for both the Rookie level and Low-Single A level (please see attached spreadsheets for specific results).</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">The factors are for a typical player and are not representative of each individual’s skill. Naturally some players will over perform and underperform the factors but they are designed as a guideline for the average division-1 collegiate player’s transition into the minor leagues. These factors intuitively make sense, Rookie level players lose less of their offensive value going from NCAA Division-1 than Low-Single A players because the competition increases at each level of the minor leagues and Rookie leagues are the lowest rung of the minors. According to my factors, Rookie level players lose roughly 16 percent of their offensive value (wOBA factor of .842) while Low-A players productions are reduced by roughly 27 percent (wOBA factor of .727). Walk rates remain fairly consistent at each level with a Rookie factor of .879 and a Low-A factor of .866. Strikeouts rates are increased at both levels by factors of 1.313 and 1.378 respectively. One interesting observation was the dramatic decrease of power experienced as a player transitions from college to the minor leagues. A typical player will lose roughly 33 percent of his isolated power jumping to the rookie leagues and about 45 percent going from the NCAA to Low-A.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">In order to test my results I ran a regression of some of my predicted statistics against the actual minor league numbers. I decided to run regressions for the key statistics I mentioned on page two at the Low-A level. To do this I multiplied each of the sample’s college statistics by the respective factor. This gave me my x-variable, the predicted results. I than ran excel regressions against their actual minor league statistics for that season (please see attached for excel regressions). The results were encouraging. For strikeouts rates I got an equation actual K%= 15.248 + .389(predicted K%). The t-statistic was significant (8.00) and the p-value was below .05 so the result is statistically significant. The regression equation for walk rates was actual BB%= 5.22 + .489(predicted). The T-stat was over seven and the p-value was below .05 indicating the result was significant. For ISO the equation was actual= .057+ .516(predicted) and again the values were highly significant. The equation for wOBA was .212 + .200(predicted) and the results were significant (t-stat of 2.6 and p-value of .009). I have also included charts of the actual versus predicted statistics.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">There are some causes for concern in this study. First off, there is selection bias in separating the samples into Rookie and Low-A pools. It is often the case that better players are drafted and placed in higher levels (usually Low-A, but sometimes Single-A) while weaker picks might go straight to the rookie leagues. The numbers seem to support this argument as rookie players posted an average of a .420 weighted on-base average in college while Low-A players averaged 35 points higher for a cumulative average of .455. This would indicate a gap in talent level between the two groups and may skew the numbers accordingly. Also, by using 30 rounds of draft picks we see wildly dramatic results in the minor league levels. Typically, higher draft picks will outperform others especially at the lower levels of the minor league system because they are more advanced and more talented than their counterparts. Using 30 rounds as a baseline may be too wide a gap and a further study may reduce that number. There also could be a problem with using 50 plate appearances as a baseline. Baseball statistics accumulated in only 50 plate appearances are not incredibly reliable and subject to extremely large confidence intervals because the sample is rather small. In the future it may be beneficial to increase the minimum amount. Also, some of the NCAA data was missing some entries. Not every school tallies sacrifice hits and sac flies or stolen base attempts which may alter the numbers somewhat.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">Something that could be interesting for a future study is to include collegiate pitchers. Pitching is, by nature, subject to more variability to due injuries and other uncertainties and this may be difficult for a researcher to overcome but I think I’ve laid out a baseline for which one to follow. Similar methods could be applied to pitchers to create factors as well.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh84PwxZl_6ksthqwNthPcIPu4fOJ3DbXQ78hytT2yVJrJgcFaC-d42Y29KvBxihGRu3J94_QB6NkAT1l16IoMce4G4fBfsOK1OC-D8KjouxKeLV-G58MrgdX2bfES1Hgt1G9xAoQTekJC/s1600/Screen+Shot+2012-03-05+at+5.25.08+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="305" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh84PwxZl_6ksthqwNthPcIPu4fOJ3DbXQ78hytT2yVJrJgcFaC-d42Y29KvBxihGRu3J94_QB6NkAT1l16IoMce4G4fBfsOK1OC-D8KjouxKeLV-G58MrgdX2bfES1Hgt1G9xAoQTekJC/s640/Screen+Shot+2012-03-05+at+5.25.08+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHNKZ8MDUtN-Kg4HeEVRIuy_wiwCyI-LbnVA_lMz0GSyHtcXmll_LV0SvV1GaCqKM6asK10r5zkScbICEzd0ntRgdGdNtqPM6uDKi3_8NZZEB6f6_7-gEiOJkrB1YAjrYVZWpXo6jJtB2u/s1600/Screen+Shot+2012-03-05+at+5.25.51+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="305" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHNKZ8MDUtN-Kg4HeEVRIuy_wiwCyI-LbnVA_lMz0GSyHtcXmll_LV0SvV1GaCqKM6asK10r5zkScbICEzd0ntRgdGdNtqPM6uDKi3_8NZZEB6f6_7-gEiOJkrB1YAjrYVZWpXo6jJtB2u/s640/Screen+Shot+2012-03-05+at+5.25.51+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
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</div><div><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><br clear="all" /> <hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" /> <!--[endif]--> <div id="ftn"> <div class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7130192112889816969#_ftnref" name="_ftn1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="X-NONE"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]-->[1]<!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span lang="X-NONE"> http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2004/11/abstracts_from_20.php</span></div></div><div id="ftn"> <div class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7130192112889816969#_ftnref" name="_ftn2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="X-NONE"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]-->[2]<!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span lang="X-NONE"> http://www.insidethebook.com/woba.shtml</span></div></div></div><!--EndFragment-->KenMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01962686270964978706noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130192112889816969.post-1852537226125231572010-10-25T14:46:00.000-07:002010-10-25T15:02:33.435-07:00College Baseball EquivalenciesThis is a project I've been working on and off for several months now. I plan to delve into these results much more in-depth and expand the sample size but I decided to post my <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">preliminary</span> results here for everyone to see.<div><br /></div><div>Basically what I did was take the top 75 offensive college players who were drafted and played rookie ball in 2009. I weighted their stats by the lowest PA total (in college or in RK) for all players. Once the PA were equal I compared all the college numbers to the RK league numbers and created factors, which we will call Rookie League Equivalencies (RKLE).</div><div><br /></div><div>The factors can be applied to a player's adjusted college stats to give a rough projection of how he will perform in Rookie-ball.</div><div><br /></div><div>The factors are as follows:</div><div>.HR- .48</div><div>2b- .80</div><div>3b- .89</div><div><b>BB%- .88</b></div><div>HBP- .73</div><div><b>K%- 1.32</b></div><div>sb- .93</div><div>ISO- .59</div><div>wOBA- .85</div><div><br /></div><div>The key stats I put in bold. As I had hypothesized walks carry over pretty highly. Strikeouts are likely to increase, so a player who strikes out a lot in college will strike out even more in the low levels of the minors.</div><div><br /></div><div>Obviously one season of players is not a huge sample size and I will ideally add to this database. I also plan to expand to Low-A and other levels if there are large enough samples</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130192112889816969.post-30498432844182839592010-06-07T17:59:00.001-07:002010-06-07T18:05:03.146-07:00Red Sox select Kolbrin VitekThe Boston Red Sox took Ball State's <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?topic_id=8080130&content_id=7863289">Kolbrin Vitek</a> with the 20th overall pick in the 2010 MLB first year player draft.<div><br /></div><div>Vitek is one of the more highly regarded college bats in this year's draft class and there were strong rumors suggesting the Padres were very interested in him with the 9th pick.</div><div><br /></div><div>Vitek posted an impressive <a href="http://www.collegesplits.com/cgi-bin/csPlayer.cgi?pl=vitekko42">adjusted-wOBA of .476</a>. He had 33 walks and 36 strikeouts and has solid bat speed and a short compact stroke. His speed is above average as is his arm strength. He was also one of the top pitchers for Ball State this season.</div><div><br /></div><div>The concern about Vitek is his defense. He played 2nd this season but doesn't profile very well there. He may be best suited for third or a corner outfield position.</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130192112889816969.post-12675324270688664022010-06-03T09:36:00.000-07:002010-06-03T09:48:46.497-07:00Felix Doubront Scouting ReportI finally got the chance to see Boston prospect Felix Doubront throw last night versus the Charlotte Knights.<br /><br />Doubront has a deceptive over-hand delivery. He has a three-pitch mix that includes a fastball in the 91-93 mph range. The pitch runs in on left-handed batters and he broke three bats in his 5.1 innings that I saw. His change-up is above-average with a chance to be a good major league pitch. He throws is in the low-80s and gets good downward action. He also flashes a high-70s curve. This pitch still needs work but could become average.<br /><br />Doubront was dominant last night. He struck out 3 and walked 1 while scattering 2 hits over 5.1 innings. He recorded 9 groundballs (vs 5 flies) and really only allowed three hard hit balls. I came away very impressed with his stuff. I can see him developing into a #3 starter down the road.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130192112889816969.post-81073668235964468112010-05-26T17:42:00.001-07:002010-05-26T17:46:06.028-07:00MLB Draft | WAR Values<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTQ1cTujCKJFpURTNsFseYLww8f1SHoDIRHe0MyqW2MI1L7w_uPoRC_K_JtfqUybSYhJ9Q1fjsxRfSGqFZG-_OXLcc2YdUhhsGsYxYs7ZExdVisniY8aozQwcx68T5SjDXlPh8RGDHW48/s1600/Graph.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 291px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTQ1cTujCKJFpURTNsFseYLww8f1SHoDIRHe0MyqW2MI1L7w_uPoRC_K_JtfqUybSYhJ9Q1fjsxRfSGqFZG-_OXLcc2YdUhhsGsYxYs7ZExdVisniY8aozQwcx68T5SjDXlPh8RGDHW48/s400/Graph.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5475744264638689842" /></a><br /><div>Here is a visual representation of MLB draft picks by WAR (over first 6 seasons). You can see a considerable downward trend beginning around pick 10. Nothing ground breaking here but something nice to look at.</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130192112889816969.post-1365249060260624232010-05-16T08:18:00.000-07:002010-05-16T08:19:18.477-07:00MLB draft scouting reports<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; ">I attended several Boston College baseball games this weekend against Florida State and Connecticut. The Seminoles are traditionally a baseball powerhouse and little has changed this season. UCONN has assembled the premier team in the Big East and they have several notable prospects of their own on the roster. Here is a quick rundown of some of the prospects I watched play.<br /><br /><b>Tyler Holt</b>- Jr, OF (Fl St)<br /><br />Holt has a small, compact frame. He hits out of a crouched stance and triggers his swing with a pretty big leg kick. His approach at the plate is highly advanced. He works deep into the count and has excellent bat control. This year he has 44 walks and 34 strikeouts. He is slugging .658 with 11 home runs on the year but is more of a line-drive gap hitter. He has good speed and is a solid base-stealer. Defensively, Holt's range is a plus and his arm is average. He should be able to stick in center in the pros. Holt is a prototypical high-OBP top of the order hitter and should go in the top five or so rounds in June.<br /><br /><b>Mickey Wiswall</b>- Jr, 1B (BC)<br /><br />Wiswall exploded onto the scene last year after he followed up a solid spring by being named an All-Star in the Cape Cod league over the summer. Wiswall's spring has been a bit of a disappointment although he has still flashed his raw power by hitting two home runs vs. UCONN today giving him 16 on the year. He has a muscular build and thick trunk. As i said, his raw power is a plus and he generates good loft on his swing. He is an aggressive hitter but his swing is long and he is prone to strikeouts (45 on the year compared to 16 walks). He has some versatility defensively. His arm is below average and he profiles best at first but some teams may be willing to give him a shot as a corner outfielder.<br /><br /><b>Pat Dean</b>- Jr, LHP (BC)<br /><br />Dean is a projectable 6'1 175 pounds with long limbs. He features a fastball, slider, curveball, and change-up. He works in the 88-90 mph range but can dial it up to 92 on occasion. His fastball and slider are above-average pitches and his curve has a chance to be an average pitch as well. His command is good (51 K/10 BB on the year) and he changes speed well. He struck out nine and walked just one against Florida State but was punished on two mistakes which led to four runs on two long balls. Durability may be a concern for him as well. He was forced to miss a start this year with a sore shoulder and has been counted on to go deep into almost every game he pitches.<br /><br /><br /><b>Michael Olt</b>- Jr, 3B (UCONN)<br /><br />Olt is a powerful third base prospect with plus raw power. He has a strong, athletic build and generates good bat speed. He has a long leg stride and a tendency to swing through balls which results in high strikeout totals. When he does make good contact he can really do some damage. I saw him lace a triple into the right-center gap. A converted shortstop, he has good actions at third base and an above-average arm. He made a great barehanded pick and throw on a bunt attempt early in the game. Although his speed his below average he should be able to stick at the hot corner. The question I have is will he be able to hit for enough average to stick in the professional ranks. He swings and misses much more often than you would like to see from a potential draft pick. That being said, you won't find many third baseman with this type of power potential.<br /><br /><b>George Springer</b>- Soph, OF (UCONN)<br /><br />I came away from the weekend most impressed with this sophomore. Springer has a lean and athletic build. He has plus power potential to all fields. Today, he hit a towering fly ball home run 400 plus feet to dead center (his first of two on the day). He is long to the ball and strikeouts way too much (29% K rate this year) but he also walks a fair amount as well. His speed is above average and his athleticism and arm could allow him to develop into an above average defender. Today he made an excellent diving catch on a sinking liner in right-center. He is certainly a prospect to follow for the 2011 draft class.<br /></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130192112889816969.post-83006921630335492292010-05-15T12:05:00.000-07:002010-05-15T12:11:41.675-07:00Anthony Rizzo gets promotedLast week one of my favorite prospects, Anthony Rizzo, was promoted to Double-A Portland to fill the void of Lars Anderson.<br /><br />Rizzo has a really solid '09 campaign between Greenville and Salem. He was off to a slower start in 2010 but slugged .491 in 114 at bats for Salem this year.<br /><br />Rizzo is a plus defender at first base and at just 20 years old his bat is coming along nicely. Keep in mind he is just a year and a half removed from chemotherapy as well.<br /><br />Although the sample size is small, Rizzo's LD rate is way down and FB rate up from his career numbers. Could this be a change in approach to loft more balls or simply random noise? The only way for us to know is to watch him in person or simply wait for him to accumulate more at bats.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130192112889816969.post-55870833086337366082010-05-07T20:33:00.000-07:002010-05-07T20:41:53.789-07:00Daniel Nava can hitPerhaps the most unheralded and intriguing prospect in Boston's system is <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Pawtucket</span> outfielder <a href="http://www.soxprospects.com/players/nava-daniel.htm">Daniel <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Nava</span></a>. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Nava</span> was a walk-on at Santa Clara and signed with Boston as a free agent after playing 1 year of Indy ball.<div><br /></div><div>He has done nothing but hit at every level. He has never been viewed as a <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">legitimate</span> prospect because of his age (he is 27 playing in Triple-A for the first time) and lack of tools. He does not possess <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">overwhelming</span> athleticism but is well-rounded and has a good approach at the plate.</div><div><br /></div><div>Nava destroyed Double-A last year to a tune of .364/.479/.568 in 118 at-bats. He recorded 25 walks and just 12 Ks as well. He is off to a solid start in Triple-A in '10 as well with a .884 OPS so far. </div><div><br /></div><div>Nava is too old to ever be considered a prospect but I do think he could become a useful 5th outfielder in the future. He is a switch hitter and can hold his own defensively.</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130192112889816969.post-75100325224449384822010-04-30T08:53:00.000-07:002010-04-30T09:01:11.660-07:00Lars Anderson ResurgenceLars Anderson fell from elite prospect status after a dismal season in Portland. This year, after a strong start, he has already been promoted to <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Pawtucket</span>.<div><br /></div><div>It's tough to tell with such a small sample size ( 62 plate appearances in Double-A this year) but it appears a change in his approach has helped immensely.</div><div><br /></div><div>In a small sample so far this year his line drive rate is 22.4%, GB 26.5%, and <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">fly ball</span> is 51.0%. These are far cry from his minor league averages of 16.2%, 53.0%, and 30.4%. Now I try not to read too much into this because we do not have a reliable sample size yet for 2010 and there is probably no way he can retain such a high line drive rate but it does appear he is driving the ball much more this season.</div><div><br /></div><div>The organization obviously noted his improvement as well and moved him up accordingly. Boston is struggling to fill the DH void and this move could bode well for Anderson's future in Boston. </div><div><br /></div><div>He will be challenged in Triple-A after spending parts of 3 seasons stalled in Double-A. We'll continue to monitor his development closely.</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130192112889816969.post-24585271790561652752010-04-26T15:29:00.000-07:002010-04-26T15:41:47.131-07:00Pitcher Development and pitch counts<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;">I really enjoyed this post over at </span></span><a href="http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2010/04/how-have-pitch-counts-changed-in-the-past-20-years/"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;">Sabernomics</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;"> regarding how pitch counts have changed. </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial;">This chart below shows how the range and standard deviation of pitch counts have shrunk but the mean has remained steady. There is plenty of talk about pitch counts and how a 100-pitch limit is an arbitrary figure. </span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial, serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial, serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">I have read studies that claim high pitch outing and heavy workloads are damaging and increase injury risks, and intuitively this makes sense to us. The major clash comes when developing pitchers. Some may say that front offices should strive to build arm strength early by allowing pitchers to go deep into games. This way that are more accustomed to throwing many pitches in an outing and can improve their endurance. Others, and the Red Sox fall on this side, argue that pitch counts and inning workloads should be strictly monitored so as to not risk future injury.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial, serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial, serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">There is no doubt that the amount of money invested in young pitchers these days may play a role in these debates. I tend to agree pitchers should be monitored closely and progressively allowed to stretch out deeper into games. The one thing to watch for though is previous exposure to high pitch counts. College coaches are notorious for leaving pitchers in the game for far too long. <a href="http://www.boydsworld.com/data/pitchcount.html">Boyd's World</a> tracks Pitcher Abuse Points each year and you can see some really startling totals.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial, serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:arial, serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">I have little doubt some pitchers today could go out and throw complete games every time out (Roy Halladay?) but why take the risk. One thing I would stress is that 100 pitches should not be the absolute cut off for every pitcher. There are obviously work-horse types that can last longer than others on a consistent basis. It would be up to the manager to determine when his player was tiring.<br /></span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Helvetica, serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Helvetica, serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Helvetica, serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span><div><p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px Helvetica"><img src="webkit-fake-url://63E938F8-A21A-493F-80A2-F43D5D1878BD/pitches_box.png" alt="pitches_box.png" /></p><p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px Helvetica"><br /></p><p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px Helvetica"><br /></p><p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px Helvetica"><br /></p><p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px Helvetica"><br /></p><p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px Helvetica"><br /></p><p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px Helvetica"><br /></p><p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px Helvetica"><br /></p></div></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130192112889816969.post-45292517971989530312010-04-23T09:44:00.000-07:002010-04-23T09:50:13.574-07:00MLB Draft questionsI conducted over at the <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/mlb-draft-qa/">Hardball Times</a> with Andy Seiler form <a href="http://www.mlbbonusbaby.com">MLB Bonus Baby</a>. That site is one of the top free mlb draft resources available today and provides great insights and first-hand scouting reports.<div><br /></div><div>One of the remarkable things about the Red Sox minor league system is that they have developed a deep and talented system without the luxury of making high selections. Every year they have picks in the 20 range which means the top talents are often gone already. Now, the Sox obviously have the advantage of investing large sums of money in the draft which means they can take guys who have fallen due to signability concerns (Craig Hansen and Daniel Bard). </div><div><br /></div><div>This also speaks volumes to the scouting department the Red Sox have developed. Let's hope they can continue their success is finding and developing prospects.</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130192112889816969.post-74507218414365951602010-04-18T19:55:00.001-07:002010-04-18T20:02:35.391-07:00Steven Brooks Scouting Report<div>Got a chance to catch Steven Brooks play at Boston College this past weekend. Brooks is a premium athlete with good speed and a solid line drive hitter. Reminds me a bit of an Alex Hassan type player whom the Sox drafted last year.</div><div><br /></div>Steven Brooks is listed at 6'0 197 and plays center field for Wake Forest. Brooks was a high school teammate of Rick Porcello and has really taken off this season.<div><br /></div><div>Brooks has a sprinters build with a strong, thick lower body. His speed is well above average and possibly plus. He shows good jumps when stealing bases. Brooks has line-drive gap power but has the potential to hit 15 homers. </div><div><br /></div><div>He has good range in center but his arm is average. A good athlete his instincts may allow him to develop into a solid defender.</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130192112889816969.post-24863708337361082632010-04-16T13:32:00.000-07:002010-04-16T15:50:10.847-07:00Mike Hazen | Boston Red SoxThe other night I attended a charity event in which Mike Hazen spoke and answered a ton of audience questions regarding his role as Farm Director and the Red Sox philosophies regarding minor league development.<div><br /></div><div>I took a few notes but spent most of my time just listening to his answers. He likened the current International Free Agent market to the "wild wild west", an analogy I thought was very suiting.</div><div><br /></div><div>He discussed the interactions with Minor League Team owners and minor league player agents. The Red Sox are very high on the Carolina League which is why Boston flexed its financial muscle to purchase the Salem Red Sox minor league team.</div><div><br /></div><div>Said the draft is about 50/50 in terms of drafting for potential contributors and just filling minor league roster spots. The cold hard truth is that only 2-3% of minor league players ever reach the major leagues.</div><div><br /></div><div>Likened the top college conferences to "somewhere between Low-A and Advanced-A in terms of degree of difficulty. I would tend to think its probably a bit closer to Low-A but thats simply my observation.</div><div><br /></div><div>Mentioned the organization's extensive bio-mechanics research for developing and keeping pitchers healthy. Said it was "no coincidence" that Beckett has remained healthy the past few seasons.</div><div><br /></div><div>I also asked him about statistical analysis in terms of the draft and he said the Red Sox are very active in this respect. This was encouraging to me because this is my primary area of interest and research.</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130192112889816969.post-13017577712530520522010-04-13T08:27:00.000-07:002010-04-13T08:28:29.327-07:00Red Sox minor league 2010 seasonThe minor league season is underway now giving us the opportunity to check out some of the organization's top prospects. I will certainly be checking out the New England based teams play, especially Portland as they are stacked with elite prospects. Check <a href="http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/redsox-recap.html">here</a> for daily updated stats on Boston's prospects.<div><br /></div><div>At the same time my focus is turning towards the MLB Draft in early June. One of my favorite sites to check is <a href="http://mlbbonusbaby.com/">MLB Bonus Baby</a>. The author recently ran two pieces on the life of a scout. Scouting is the lifeblood of any organization and Boston especially takes pride in their scouting department. I encourage everyone to check this out.</div><div><br /></div><div>I will doing some reports on this year's draft class in the coming weeks so stay tuned.</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130192112889816969.post-6532305596970045032010-04-06T10:18:00.000-07:002010-04-06T10:25:16.264-07:00Boston Red Sox minor league rosters setBoston has officially set the <a href="http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2010/04/minor_league_af.html">rosters</a> for Pawtucket, Portland, Salem, and Greenville.<div><br /></div><div>A couple of quick notes:</div><div><br /></div><div>Lars Anderson will spend at least part of his third straight season in Double-A. This will be a critical year for Anderson as he tries to shake off last year's struggles and regain his top prospect status.</div><div><br /></div><div>I'm a little surprised to see Ryan Kalish start the year in Double-A after he played pretty well there last year. I expect he will be in Pawtucket before the year is over.</div><div><br /></div><div>Jose Iglesias will also start in Portland. He may be the most interesting prospect to watch this year. Reports indicate his defense is off the charts and his bat is coming along better than expected. He too could see Pawtucket, especially if Boston needs middle infield help.</div><div><br /></div><div>Ryan Lavarnway begins the year in Salem. This is quite a shock to me. Lavarnway may not be a terrific defensive catcher but has plus power potential and draws walks.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130192112889816969.post-1393480401186604622010-04-03T14:06:00.001-07:002010-04-03T14:09:04.749-07:00Tom Tippett Boston Red SoxThe <a href="http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2010/04/04/digitally_enhanced/?page=full">Boston Globe</a> ran a nice article on Red <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Sox</span> Director of Baseball Information Tom <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Tippett</span>. I've had the <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">privilege</span> of meeting and listening to Mr. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Tippett</span> speak and he is truly a bright baseball mind. He is responsible for synthesizing the all the scouting, medical, and statistical information the Red Sox have into one database. Although this is his primary responsibility he does also play a large role in the decision making process. Unlike Bill James, who is based out of Kansas, Tippett is a local guy and around the day-to-day decisions.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130192112889816969.post-89480866751501975852010-03-29T14:37:00.003-07:002010-06-21T19:54:42.492-07:00Theo Epstein path to General Manager<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" id="730vetq4" width="432" height="415"><param name="movie" value="http://images.video.msn.com/flash/customplayer/1_0/customplayer.swf"><param name="bgcolor" value="#ffffff"><param name="base" value="."><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"><param name="wmode" value="transparent"><param name="flashvars" value="player.c=v&player.v=41ce66a5-e278-47cc-8f7e-790bcdb37499&mkt=en-us&brand=foxsports&configCsid=msnvideo&configName=syndicationplayer"><embed src="http://images.video.msn.com/flash/customplayer/1_0/customplayer.swf" width="432" height="415" id="teha23m4" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" pluginspage="http://macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" base="." wmode="transparent" flashvars="player.c=v&player.v=41ce66a5-e278-47cc-8f7e-790bcdb37499&mkt=en-us&brand=foxsports&configCsid=msnvideo&configName=syndicationplayer"></embed></object><noembed></noembed>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130192112889816969.post-27940184635770633052010-03-29T11:50:00.000-07:002010-03-29T11:57:15.457-07:00Red Sox 2010 draft picksBoston holds <a href="http://riveraveblues.com/2010-draft-order/">picks</a> 20, 36, 39, 57, 110, and 143 in the first 4 rounds. The #20 pick will be the highest Boston has selected since taking David Murphy 17th in 2003.<div><br /></div><div>The Sox lost picks #29 and #80 for signing Lackey and Scutaro.</div><div><br /></div><div>Boston has had a penchant for drafting athletic and raw players, often times these guys play two-ways.</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130192112889816969.post-69970250423976903412010-03-24T16:41:00.001-07:002010-03-24T16:41:34.956-07:00Can college baseball statistics predict future success?This is a question I am in the middle of trying to answer. While compiling and sifting through the data is a long, cumbersome process I hope the results can reveal something worthwhile.<div><br /></div><div>Basically, I am taking all the raw college data I could gather (huge thanks to <a href="http://www.boydsworld.com/">Boyds World</a> for this) and adjusting if for strength of schedule and park factors. Once this is completed I will then input player's minor league stats and possibly MLB stats. I was thinking that it would be best to use data from the same seasons meaning a guy who played college and then was drafted and played minor league ball in the same year.</div><div><br /></div><div>Once I have all this data I will use regression techniques and see what I come up with. My initial hypothesis is that plate discipline will have the strongest correlation into pro ball. I will be curious to see what results, if any, pitchers generate. Unfortunately, I only have raw data and no batted ball tendencies. <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/education-of-a-pitcher/">Jeff Sackmann</a> has done some nice work with this data over at The<a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/">Hardball Times</a> and <a href="http://www.collegesplits.com/">collegesplits.com</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div>I plan on sharing my results when finally completed, but I anticipate this project will take several more months to complete so stay tuned.</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130192112889816969.post-50572767614812290732010-03-15T21:15:00.001-07:002010-03-15T21:17:42.815-07:00Ryan Westmoreland surgeryThis news broke a few days ago but Ryan Westmoreland was scheduled to undergo <a href="http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2010/03/15/concern_evident_for_sox_westmoreland/?rss_id=Boston.com+--+Red+Sox+News">brain surgery</a> today after he was diagnosed with a "cavernous malformation". Putting aside his vast potential as a ballplayer let us hope that his surgery and recovery process go smoothly and according to plan. <div><br /></div><div>Let us share our thoughts and prayers for this young man and his family. By all accounts he is a bright and talented kid and hopefully he best days are still ahead of him.</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130192112889816969.post-28527903533148355502010-03-11T20:25:00.001-08:002010-03-11T20:25:51.582-08:00MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Convention<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px; ">I realize this is almost a week old now but I wanted to mention a few key points from the Baseball Analytics panel at the Sloan Sports Analytics Convention.<div><br /></div><div>The panel was led by Rob Neyer and included Shiraz Rehman (Director of Baseball Operation, Arizona Diamondbacks), Tom Tippett (Director of Baseball Information, Boston Red Sox), John Abbamondi (Asst GM, St. Louis Cardinals), John Dewan (Baseball Info Solutions) and former Boston GM Dan Duquette.</div><div><br /></div><div>There was significant talk regarding defense and the metrics used to capture it. Dewan stated the some of the teams his company works with (roughly 15) are far behind in terms of their knowledge of defensive information and what to do with it.</div><div><br /></div><div>Tom Tippett discussed player projections and the difficulty of determining individual career tracks. When discussing player options Abbamondi admitted the Cardinals employ an option-pricing model. He also discussed the anticipation of HitFX although he was worried this would level the playing field too much for less analytically inclined organizations.</div><div><br /></div><div>Dan Duquette seemed a bit out of place in the discussions. He kept referring to 20-game winning pitchers as if they completely controlled their wins and losses, which we know to be erroneous. It was clear that the other baseball folks represented a new bread of management.</div><div><br /></div><div>I did not take any notes during the event so I am obviously missing quite a bit of info. There was a nice writeup on the <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/state-of-sabermetrics-insights-from-the-2010-sloan-sports-analytics-confere/" style="color: rgb(0, 102, 204); text-decoration: none; ">Hardball Times</a>and over at <a href="http://baseballmusings.com/?p=47703" style="color: rgb(0, 102, 204); text-decoration: none; ">Baseball Musings</a>.</div></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130192112889816969.post-30458808780325013382010-03-08T09:04:00.000-08:002010-03-08T09:08:27.037-08:00Red Sox Spring TrainingAs much as I love baseball statistics one of the key concepts is to know and understand the context behind the stats. Spring training is a perfect example. These statistics are absolutely meaningless. They have no predictive value and offer us no glimpse into how players will perform in the regular season.<div><br /></div><div>Spring training is a time for scouts to observe and note improvements made in players. The organization has been impressed with top pitching prospect Casey Kelly, not because of his numbers, but because of his poise and comfort as a 20-year old in big league camp. Obviously results can be important in identifying who can contribute this season but I am sure this is a very small influence on the organization's decision making process.</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130192112889816969.post-39845483364758625872010-02-26T09:18:00.000-08:002010-02-26T09:26:46.038-08:00More Epstein on statisticsRed Sox GM Theo Epstein <a href="http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2010/02/25/theo-epstein-on-dc-sox-need-balance/">discusses</a> how the team uses some type of Wins Above Replacement value to evaluate a player's total contribution.<div><br /></div><div>He also talks about defense. Ellsbury's ability as a defender has come under scrutiny as he recorded one of the worst UZR's for a center fielder last season. I tend to side with Theo and the Fan's scouting report that he is an average to above average fielder.</div><div><br /></div><div>If you look at his UZR from his first two MLB seasons and his Total Zone numbers from the minor leagues all indicate he is above average. There is no doubt he has the range but he may have struggled reading the ball off the bat last season which contributed to his poor rating.</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130192112889816969.post-91912285696882767772010-02-25T07:36:00.001-08:002010-02-25T07:42:45.858-08:00Theo Epstein talks sabermetricsAside from the cheesy commentary by Jim <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Bowden</span> this <a href="http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/jim_bowdens_sabermetrics_primer/">video</a> is actually very informative. Theo makes some appearances but by far the most important thing he discussed was the Red <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Sox</span>' proprietary information system "Carmine".<div><br /></div><div>As you would expect he did not get into details but from what I can decipher this sounds like a system similar to those in place in Cleveland and Pittsburgh already. Director of Baseball Information Tom <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Tippett</span>, the mastermind behind <a href="http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/projmeth.htm">Diamond Mind Baseball</a>, likely had a large hand in developing this system.</div><div><br /></div><div>Carmine is probably an information database where all scouting reports, statistics, and other data can be ascertained on players in the system. This allowed for scouts and other baseball ops <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">personnel</span> to quickly pull up all available information on a player.</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130192112889816969.post-29877171275002703042010-02-16T14:51:00.001-08:002010-02-16T14:53:07.209-08:00How much will the Sox improve run prevention?<!--StartFragment--> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'Lucida Grande';font-size:11px;">Boston’s emphasis on defense this off-season has been well known. New acquisitions <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1555&position=2B/SS" class="player">Marco Scutaro</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=639&position=3B" class="player">Adrian Beltre</a> and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1070&position=OF" class="player">Mike Cameron</a> all have strong reputations for their defensive abilities. Boston also went out and signed the top free agent pitcher in <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1507&position=P" class="player">John Lackey</a>. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'Lucida Grande';font-size:11px;">The question many fans are wondering is just how much they will improve from last year. I decided to look at last season’s UZR numbers (courtesy of fangraphs) from their former player and new signings at each position. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'Lucida Grande';font-size:11px;">At the third base position <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=527&position=3B" class="player">Mike Lowell</a> and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1935&position=1B/3B" class="player">Kevin Youkilis</a> split time and combined for -12 runs in 2009. Adrian Beltre missed significant time with injuries but still racked up 14.3 UZR, which is good for a 26 run swing. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'Lucida Grande';font-size:11px;">The Sox upgraded at shortstop by singing Marco Scutaro. Scutaro posted a 0.9 UZR in ’09 and Boston’s trio of <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/players.aspx?lastname=Alex%20Gonzalez" class="player">Alex Gonzalez</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/players.aspx?lastname=Nick%20Green" class="player">Nick Green</a>e, and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=565&position=SS" class="player">Julio Lugo</a> posted exactly the same number so no net change. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'Lucida Grande';font-size:11px;">Boston brought in Mike Cameron to patrol center field. Cameron’s 2009 UZR of 10 was 28 runs better than <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4727&position=OF" class="player">Jacoby Ellsbury</a>. Ellsbury had a dismal year in the field according to UZR, which had him at -18.6 runs. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'Lucida Grande';font-size:11px;">Ellsbury will be making to shift to left field where he will take over for <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1717&position=OF" class="player">Jason Bay</a>. Ellsbury has a small sample size of innings in left although CHONE projects him to be around +6, which is where I would cautiously predict as well. This is a 19 run upgrade over Bay’s -13 UZR last year. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'Lucida Grande';font-size:11px;">All told that is nearly a 74 run difference in defense alone before taking into account the addition of John Lackey to the staff. Lackey himself could keep an additional 30-40 runs off the board. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'Lucida Grande';font-size:11px;">Last year the Red Sox allowed 736 runs on the year. Allowing for some regression to the mean I can see the Red Sox improving their run prevention by 80-100 runs. This would put them around the ballpark of 630-650 runs allowed next season. </span></p> <!--EndFragment-->Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0