Sabermetric Sox Report

College Baseball Equivalencies

2010-10-25T14:46:00.000-07:00

This is a project I've been working on and off for several months now. I plan to delve into these results much more in-depth and expand the sample size but I decided to post my preliminary results here for everyone to see.

Basically what I did was take the top 75 offensive college players who were drafted and played rookie ball in 2009. I weighted their stats by the lowest PA total (in college or in RK) for all players. Once the PA were equal I compared all the college numbers to the RK league numbers and created factors, which we will call Rookie League Equivalencies (RKLE).

The factors can be applied to a player's adjusted college stats to give a rough projection of how he will perform in Rookie-ball.

The factors are as follows:

.HR- .48

2b- .80

3b- .89

BB%- .88

HBP- .73

K%- 1.32

sb- .93

ISO- .59

wOBA- .85

The key stats I put in bold. As I had hypothesized walks carry over pretty highly. Strikeouts are likely to increase, so a player who strikes out a lot in college will strike out even more in the low levels of the minors.

Obviously one season of players is not a huge sample size and I will ideally add to this database. I also plan to expand to Low-A and other levels if there are large enough samples

Red Sox select Kolbrin Vitek

2010-06-07T17:59:00.001-07:00

The Boston Red Sox took Ball State's Kolbrin Vitek with the 20th overall pick in the 2010 MLB first year player draft.

Vitek is one of the more highly regarded college bats in this year's draft class and there were strong rumors suggesting the Padres were very interested in him with the 9th pick.

Vitek posted an impressive adjusted-wOBA of .476. He had 33 walks and 36 strikeouts and has solid bat speed and a short compact stroke. His speed is above average as is his arm strength. He was also one of the top pitchers for Ball State this season.

The concern about Vitek is his defense. He played 2nd this season but doesn't profile very well there. He may be best suited for third or a corner outfield position.

Felix Doubront Scouting Report

2010-06-03T09:36:00.000-07:00

I finally got the chance to see Boston prospect Felix Doubront throw last night versus the Charlotte Knights.

Doubront has a deceptive over-hand delivery. He has a three-pitch mix that includes a fastball in the 91-93 mph range. The pitch runs in on left-handed batters and he broke three bats in his 5.1 innings that I saw. His change-up is above-average with a chance to be a good major league pitch. He throws is in the low-80s and gets good downward action. He also flashes a high-70s curve. This pitch still needs work but could become average.

Doubront was dominant last night. He struck out 3 and walked 1 while scattering 2 hits over 5.1 innings. He recorded 9 groundballs (vs 5 flies) and really only allowed three hard hit balls. I came away very impressed with his stuff. I can see him developing into a #3 starter down the road.

MLB Draft | WAR Values

2010-05-26T17:42:00.001-07:00

Here is a visual representation of MLB draft picks by WAR (over first 6 seasons). You can see a considerable downward trend beginning around pick 10. Nothing ground breaking here but something nice to look at.

MLB draft scouting reports

2010-05-16T08:18:00.000-07:00

I attended several Boston College baseball games this weekend against Florida State and Connecticut. The Seminoles are traditionally a baseball powerhouse and little has changed this season. UCONN has assembled the premier team in the Big East and they have several notable prospects of their own on the roster. Here is a quick rundown of some of the prospects I watched play.

Tyler Holt- Jr, OF (Fl St)

Holt has a small, compact frame. He hits out of a crouched stance and triggers his swing with a pretty big leg kick. His approach at the plate is highly advanced. He works deep into the count and has excellent bat control. This year he has 44 walks and 34 strikeouts. He is slugging .658 with 11 home runs on the year but is more of a line-drive gap hitter. He has good speed and is a solid base-stealer. Defensively, Holt's range is a plus and his arm is average. He should be able to stick in center in the pros. Holt is a prototypical high-OBP top of the order hitter and should go in the top five or so rounds in June.

Mickey Wiswall- Jr, 1B (BC)

Wiswall exploded onto the scene last year after he followed up a solid spring by being named an All-Star in the Cape Cod league over the summer. Wiswall's spring has been a bit of a disappointment although he has still flashed his raw power by hitting two home runs vs. UCONN today giving him 16 on the year. He has a muscular build and thick trunk. As i said, his raw power is a plus and he generates good loft on his swing. He is an aggressive hitter but his swing is long and he is prone to strikeouts (45 on the year compared to 16 walks). He has some versatility defensively. His arm is below average and he profiles best at first but some teams may be willing to give him a shot as a corner outfielder.

Pat Dean- Jr, LHP (BC)

Dean is a projectable 6'1 175 pounds with long limbs. He features a fastball, slider, curveball, and change-up. He works in the 88-90 mph range but can dial it up to 92 on occasion. His fastball and slider are above-average pitches and his curve has a chance to be an average pitch as well. His command is good (51 K/10 BB on the year) and he changes speed well. He struck out nine and walked just one against Florida State but was punished on two mistakes which led to four runs on two long balls. Durability may be a concern for him as well. He was forced to miss a start this year with a sore shoulder and has been counted on to go deep into almost every game he pitches.

Michael Olt- Jr, 3B (UCONN)

Olt is a powerful third base prospect with plus raw power. He has a strong, athletic build and generates good bat speed. He has a long leg stride and a tendency to swing through balls which results in high strikeout totals. When he does make good contact he can really do some damage. I saw him lace a triple into the right-center gap. A converted shortstop, he has good actions at third base and an above-average arm. He made a great barehanded pick and throw on a bunt attempt early in the game. Although his speed his below average he should be able to stick at the hot corner. The question I have is will he be able to hit for enough average to stick in the professional ranks. He swings and misses much more often than you would like to see from a potential draft pick. That being said, you won't find many third baseman with this type of power potential.

George Springer- Soph, OF (UCONN)

I came away from the weekend most impressed with this sophomore. Springer has a lean and athletic build. He has plus power potential to all fields. Today, he hit a towering fly ball home run 400 plus feet to dead center (his first of two on the day). He is long to the ball and strikeouts way too much (29% K rate this year) but he also walks a fair amount as well. His speed is above average and his athleticism and arm could allow him to develop into an above average defender. Today he made an excellent diving catch on a sinking liner in right-center. He is certainly a prospect to follow for the 2011 draft class.

Anthony Rizzo gets promoted

2010-05-15T12:05:00.000-07:00

Last week one of my favorite prospects, Anthony Rizzo, was promoted to Double-A Portland to fill the void of Lars Anderson.

Rizzo has a really solid '09 campaign between Greenville and Salem. He was off to a slower start in 2010 but slugged .491 in 114 at bats for Salem this year.

Rizzo is a plus defender at first base and at just 20 years old his bat is coming along nicely. Keep in mind he is just a year and a half removed from chemotherapy as well.

Although the sample size is small, Rizzo's LD rate is way down and FB rate up from his career numbers. Could this be a change in approach to loft more balls or simply random noise? The only way for us to know is to watch him in person or simply wait for him to accumulate more at bats.

Daniel Nava can hit

2010-05-07T20:33:00.000-07:00

Perhaps the most unheralded and intriguing prospect in Boston's system is Pawtucket outfielder Daniel Nava. Nava was a walk-on at Santa Clara and signed with Boston as a free agent after playing 1 year of Indy ball.

He has done nothing but hit at every level. He has never been viewed as a legitimate prospect because of his age (he is 27 playing in Triple-A for the first time) and lack of tools. He does not possess overwhelming athleticism but is well-rounded and has a good approach at the plate.

Nava destroyed Double-A last year to a tune of .364/.479/.568 in 118 at-bats. He recorded 25 walks and just 12 Ks as well. He is off to a solid start in Triple-A in '10 as well with a .884 OPS so far.

Nava is too old to ever be considered a prospect but I do think he could become a useful 5th outfielder in the future. He is a switch hitter and can hold his own defensively.

Lars Anderson Resurgence

2010-04-30T08:53:00.000-07:00

Lars Anderson fell from elite prospect status after a dismal season in Portland. This year, after a strong start, he has already been promoted to Pawtucket.

It's tough to tell with such a small sample size ( 62 plate appearances in Double-A this year) but it appears a change in his approach has helped immensely.

In a small sample so far this year his line drive rate is 22.4%, GB 26.5%, and fly ball is 51.0%. These are far cry from his minor league averages of 16.2%, 53.0%, and 30.4%. Now I try not to read too much into this because we do not have a reliable sample size yet for 2010 and there is probably no way he can retain such a high line drive rate but it does appear he is driving the ball much more this season.

The organization obviously noted his improvement as well and moved him up accordingly. Boston is struggling to fill the DH void and this move could bode well for Anderson's future in Boston.

He will be challenged in Triple-A after spending parts of 3 seasons stalled in Double-A. We'll continue to monitor his development closely.

Pitcher Development and pitch counts

2010-04-26T15:29:00.000-07:00

I really enjoyed this post over at Sabernomics regarding how pitch counts have changed. This chart below shows how the range and standard deviation of pitch counts have shrunk but the mean has remained steady. There is plenty of talk about pitch counts and how a 100-pitch limit is an arbitrary figure.

I have read studies that claim high pitch outing and heavy workloads are damaging and increase injury risks, and intuitively this makes sense to us. The major clash comes when developing pitchers. Some may say that front offices should strive to build arm strength early by allowing pitchers to go deep into games. This way that are more accustomed to throwing many pitches in an outing and can improve their endurance. Others, and the Red Sox fall on this side, argue that pitch counts and inning workloads should be strictly monitored so as to not risk future injury.

There is no doubt that the amount of money invested in young pitchers these days may play a role in these debates. I tend to agree pitchers should be monitored closely and progressively allowed to stretch out deeper into games. The one thing to watch for though is previous exposure to high pitch counts. College coaches are notorious for leaving pitchers in the game for far too long. Boyd's World tracks Pitcher Abuse Points each year and you can see some really startling totals.

I have little doubt some pitchers today could go out and throw complete games every time out (Roy Halladay?) but why take the risk. One thing I would stress is that 100 pitches should not be the absolute cut off for every pitcher. There are obviously work-horse types that can last longer than others on a consistent basis. It would be up to the manager to determine when his player was tiring.

MLB Draft questions

2010-04-23T09:44:00.000-07:00

I conducted over at the Hardball Times with Andy Seiler form MLB Bonus Baby. That site is one of the top free mlb draft resources available today and provides great insights and first-hand scouting reports.

One of the remarkable things about the Red Sox minor league system is that they have developed a deep and talented system without the luxury of making high selections. Every year they have picks in the 20 range which means the top talents are often gone already. Now, the Sox obviously have the advantage of investing large sums of money in the draft which means they can take guys who have fallen due to signability concerns (Craig Hansen and Daniel Bard).

This also speaks volumes to the scouting department the Red Sox have developed. Let's hope they can continue their success is finding and developing prospects.

Steven Brooks Scouting Report

2010-04-18T19:55:00.001-07:00

Got a chance to catch Steven Brooks play at Boston College this past weekend. Brooks is a premium athlete with good speed and a solid line drive hitter. Reminds me a bit of an Alex Hassan type player whom the Sox drafted last year.

Steven Brooks is listed at 6'0 197 and plays center field for Wake Forest. Brooks was a high school teammate of Rick Porcello and has really taken off this season.

Brooks has a sprinters build with a strong, thick lower body. His speed is well above average and possibly plus. He shows good jumps when stealing bases. Brooks has line-drive gap power but has the potential to hit 15 homers.

He has good range in center but his arm is average. A good athlete his instincts may allow him to develop into a solid defender.

Mike Hazen | Boston Red Sox

2010-04-16T13:32:00.000-07:00

The other night I attended a charity event in which Mike Hazen spoke and answered a ton of audience questions regarding his role as Farm Director and the Red Sox philosophies regarding minor league development.

I took a few notes but spent most of my time just listening to his answers. He likened the current International Free Agent market to the "wild wild west", an analogy I thought was very suiting.

He discussed the interactions with Minor League Team owners and minor league player agents. The Red Sox are very high on the Carolina League which is why Boston flexed its financial muscle to purchase the Salem Red Sox minor league team.

Said the draft is about 50/50 in terms of drafting for potential contributors and just filling minor league roster spots. The cold hard truth is that only 2-3% of minor league players ever reach the major leagues.

Likened the top college conferences to "somewhere between Low-A and Advanced-A in terms of degree of difficulty. I would tend to think its probably a bit closer to Low-A but thats simply my observation.

Mentioned the organization's extensive bio-mechanics research for developing and keeping pitchers healthy. Said it was "no coincidence" that Beckett has remained healthy the past few seasons.

I also asked him about statistical analysis in terms of the draft and he said the Red Sox are very active in this respect. This was encouraging to me because this is my primary area of interest and research.

Red Sox minor league 2010 season

2010-04-13T08:27:00.000-07:00

The minor league season is underway now giving us the opportunity to check out some of the organization's top prospects. I will certainly be checking out the New England based teams play, especially Portland as they are stacked with elite prospects. Check here for daily updated stats on Boston's prospects.

At the same time my focus is turning towards the MLB Draft in early June. One of my favorite sites to check is MLB Bonus Baby. The author recently ran two pieces on the life of a scout. Scouting is the lifeblood of any organization and Boston especially takes pride in their scouting department. I encourage everyone to check this out.

I will doing some reports on this year's draft class in the coming weeks so stay tuned.

Boston Red Sox minor league rosters set

2010-04-06T10:18:00.000-07:00

Boston has officially set the rosters for Pawtucket, Portland, Salem, and Greenville.

A couple of quick notes:

Lars Anderson will spend at least part of his third straight season in Double-A. This will be a critical year for Anderson as he tries to shake off last year's struggles and regain his top prospect status.

I'm a little surprised to see Ryan Kalish start the year in Double-A after he played pretty well there last year. I expect he will be in Pawtucket before the year is over.

Jose Iglesias will also start in Portland. He may be the most interesting prospect to watch this year. Reports indicate his defense is off the charts and his bat is coming along better than expected. He too could see Pawtucket, especially if Boston needs middle infield help.

Ryan Lavarnway begins the year in Salem. This is quite a shock to me. Lavarnway may not be a terrific defensive catcher but has plus power potential and draws walks.

Tom Tippett Boston Red Sox

2010-04-03T14:06:00.001-07:00

The Boston Globe ran a nice article on Red Sox Director of Baseball Information Tom Tippett. I've had the privilege of meeting and listening to Mr. Tippett speak and he is truly a bright baseball mind. He is responsible for synthesizing the all the scouting, medical, and statistical information the Red Sox have into one database. Although this is his primary responsibility he does also play a large role in the decision making process. Unlike Bill James, who is based out of Kansas, Tippett is a local guy and around the day-to-day decisions.

Theo Epstein path to General Manager

2010-03-29T14:37:00.003-07:00

Red Sox 2010 draft picks

2010-03-29T11:50:00.000-07:00

Boston holds picks 20, 36, 39, 57, 110, and 143 in the first 4 rounds. The #20 pick will be the highest Boston has selected since taking David Murphy 17th in 2003.

The Sox lost picks #29 and #80 for signing Lackey and Scutaro.

Boston has had a penchant for drafting athletic and raw players, often times these guys play two-ways.

Can college baseball statistics predict future success?

2010-03-24T16:41:00.001-07:00

This is a question I am in the middle of trying to answer. While compiling and sifting through the data is a long, cumbersome process I hope the results can reveal something worthwhile.

Basically, I am taking all the raw college data I could gather (huge thanks to Boyds World for this) and adjusting if for strength of schedule and park factors. Once this is completed I will then input player's minor league stats and possibly MLB stats. I was thinking that it would be best to use data from the same seasons meaning a guy who played college and then was drafted and played minor league ball in the same year.

Once I have all this data I will use regression techniques and see what I come up with. My initial hypothesis is that plate discipline will have the strongest correlation into pro ball. I will be curious to see what results, if any, pitchers generate. Unfortunately, I only have raw data and no batted ball tendencies. Jeff Sackmann has done some nice work with this data over at TheHardball Times and collegesplits.com.

I plan on sharing my results when finally completed, but I anticipate this project will take several more months to complete so stay tuned.

Ryan Westmoreland surgery

2010-03-15T21:15:00.001-07:00

This news broke a few days ago but Ryan Westmoreland was scheduled to undergo brain surgery today after he was diagnosed with a "cavernous malformation". Putting aside his vast potential as a ballplayer let us hope that his surgery and recovery process go smoothly and according to plan.

Let us share our thoughts and prayers for this young man and his family. By all accounts he is a bright and talented kid and hopefully he best days are still ahead of him.

MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Convention

2010-03-11T20:25:00.001-08:00

I realize this is almost a week old now but I wanted to mention a few key points from the Baseball Analytics panel at the Sloan Sports Analytics Convention.

The panel was led by Rob Neyer and included Shiraz Rehman (Director of Baseball Operation, Arizona Diamondbacks), Tom Tippett (Director of Baseball Information, Boston Red Sox), John Abbamondi (Asst GM, St. Louis Cardinals), John Dewan (Baseball Info Solutions) and former Boston GM Dan Duquette.

There was significant talk regarding defense and the metrics used to capture it. Dewan stated the some of the teams his company works with (roughly 15) are far behind in terms of their knowledge of defensive information and what to do with it.

Tom Tippett discussed player projections and the difficulty of determining individual career tracks. When discussing player options Abbamondi admitted the Cardinals employ an option-pricing model. He also discussed the anticipation of HitFX although he was worried this would level the playing field too much for less analytically inclined organizations.

Dan Duquette seemed a bit out of place in the discussions. He kept referring to 20-game winning pitchers as if they completely controlled their wins and losses, which we know to be erroneous. It was clear that the other baseball folks represented a new bread of management.

I did not take any notes during the event so I am obviously missing quite a bit of info. There was a nice writeup on the Hardball Timesand over at Baseball Musings.

Red Sox Spring Training

2010-03-08T09:04:00.000-08:00

As much as I love baseball statistics one of the key concepts is to know and understand the context behind the stats. Spring training is a perfect example. These statistics are absolutely meaningless. They have no predictive value and offer us no glimpse into how players will perform in the regular season.

Spring training is a time for scouts to observe and note improvements made in players. The organization has been impressed with top pitching prospect Casey Kelly, not because of his numbers, but because of his poise and comfort as a 20-year old in big league camp. Obviously results can be important in identifying who can contribute this season but I am sure this is a very small influence on the organization's decision making process.

More Epstein on statistics

2010-02-26T09:18:00.000-08:00

Red Sox GM Theo Epstein discusses how the team uses some type of Wins Above Replacement value to evaluate a player's total contribution.

He also talks about defense. Ellsbury's ability as a defender has come under scrutiny as he recorded one of the worst UZR's for a center fielder last season. I tend to side with Theo and the Fan's scouting report that he is an average to above average fielder.

If you look at his UZR from his first two MLB seasons and his Total Zone numbers from the minor leagues all indicate he is above average. There is no doubt he has the range but he may have struggled reading the ball off the bat last season which contributed to his poor rating.

Theo Epstein talks sabermetrics

2010-02-25T07:36:00.001-08:00

Aside from the cheesy commentary by Jim Bowden this video is actually very informative. Theo makes some appearances but by far the most important thing he discussed was the Red Sox' proprietary information system "Carmine".

As you would expect he did not get into details but from what I can decipher this sounds like a system similar to those in place in Cleveland and Pittsburgh already. Director of Baseball Information Tom Tippett, the mastermind behind Diamond Mind Baseball, likely had a large hand in developing this system.

Carmine is probably an information database where all scouting reports, statistics, and other data can be ascertained on players in the system. This allowed for scouts and other baseball ops personnel to quickly pull up all available information on a player.

How much will the Sox improve run prevention?

2010-02-16T14:51:00.001-08:00

Boston’s emphasis on defense this off-season has been well known. New acquisitions Marco Scutaro, Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron all have strong reputations for their defensive abilities. Boston also went out and signed the top free agent pitcher in John Lackey.

The question many fans are wondering is just how much they will improve from last year. I decided to look at last season’s UZR numbers (courtesy of fangraphs) from their former player and new signings at each position.

At the third base position Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis split time and combined for -12 runs in 2009. Adrian Beltre missed significant time with injuries but still racked up 14.3 UZR, which is good for a 26 run swing.

The Sox upgraded at shortstop by singing Marco Scutaro. Scutaro posted a 0.9 UZR in ’09 and Boston’s trio of Alex Gonzalez, Nick Greene, and Julio Lugo posted exactly the same number so no net change.

Boston brought in Mike Cameron to patrol center field. Cameron’s 2009 UZR of 10 was 28 runs better than Jacoby Ellsbury. Ellsbury had a dismal year in the field according to UZR, which had him at -18.6 runs.

Ellsbury will be making to shift to left field where he will take over for Jason Bay. Ellsbury has a small sample size of innings in left although CHONE projects him to be around +6, which is where I would cautiously predict as well. This is a 19 run upgrade over Bay’s -13 UZR last year.

All told that is nearly a 74 run difference in defense alone before taking into account the addition of John Lackey to the staff. Lackey himself could keep an additional 30-40 runs off the board.

Last year the Red Sox allowed 736 runs on the year. Allowing for some regression to the mean I can see the Red Sox improving their run prevention by 80-100 runs. This would put them around the ballpark of 630-650 runs allowed next season.

Red Sox pick up Gabby Hernandez

2010-02-12T09:43:00.000-08:00

Boston picked up former Seattle Mariners pitcher Gabby Hernandez off waivers. Hernandez was a former 3rd round pick in '04 by the Mets. He throws right-handed and is listed at 6'3 215.

The 23-year old has spent the majority of the past two seasons in Triple-A where he posted a FIP of 5.41 in '09 and 4.49 in '08. On the surface it appears he has been a bit unlucky with a BABIP of .311 and .384 in those years and LOB% of 69.2 and 65.3 percent.

I have not been able to find and PFX data on Hernandez although judging by his batted ball profile on Minor League Splits it does not appear he has any groundball or flyball tendencies. He has posted solid strikeout and walk numbers in the past. Although he has spent most of his time as a starter I doubt he has the stuff to stick in the majors. Perhaps he could get by as a middle reliever type.

Red Sox non-roster spring training invitees

2010-02-06T12:35:00.000-08:00

GM Theo Epstein announced the 20 non-roster invites for the Red Sox spring training beginning February 24.

Of this group the notable prospects are Randor Bierd, Casey Kelly, Adam Mills, Kyle Weiland, Luis Exposito, Lars Anderson, Angel Sanchez, Ryan Kalish and Che-Hsuan Lin.

By inviting these prospects the Sox will be able to get a closer look at them and help determine just how close they are to being major league ready. Clearly the sox will take an extra long look at the pitchers in order to find out who might be available in a pinch.

Analyzing the MLB draft

2010-01-27T16:31:00.000-08:00

There has been plenty of work published regarding the value of draft picks, most notably the work done by Victor Wang. Wang's previous studies (part 1 and part 2) on the draft were a major help for me in conducting this study.

Using the first 100 picks from the 1992-1999 drafts I came up with a sample of 388 players who reached the major leagues. Due to such a small sample size I disregarded Junior College and Community College draftees. I used Wins Above Replacement as my benchmark for evaluating players which differs from Wang's used of WAB (thanks to Sean Smith of baseballprojection.com for the WAR database). I took the average of each player's WAR over their first six seasons.

Much like Wang's study I broke the data down into first round picks (1-30), second round (31-70), and third round selection (71-100). I have broken down the data various ways below.

First Round

College hitters-- 1.336 WAR/year

High School hitters-- 1.204 WAR/year

College pitchers-- .649 WAR/year

High School pitchers-- .878 WAR/year

As previously noted college hitters hold the edge in terms of production, although high school batters are not far behind. One thing I found surprising is that my study shows that high school pitchers have actually outperformed college pitchers. This differs from all other previous draft study. This could be a result of a sample bias or a flaw in my methodology. I found the standard deviations for college pitchers (1.049) to be slightly than the SD for high school pitchers (1.261) in this round. This can be attributed to the unpredictability in developing young and inexperienced arms.

Second Round

College hitters-- .773 WAR/year

High School hitters-- .672 WAR/year

College pitchers-- .087 WAR/year

High School pitchers-- .084 WAR/year

Here we see a noticeable drop of in pitcher's WAR/year for both college and high school players. College hitters are still the most productive in this group. The SDs for pitchers in this round were much lower (.617 for college and .497 for HS).

Third Round

College hitters-- .115 WAR/year

High School hitters-- .424 WAR/year

College hitters-- (.023) WAR/year

High School pitchers-- .058 WAR/year

In this round we see high school batters hold the edge. College pitchers actually had a negative WAR in this range. College pitchers reported a SD of .469 while HS pitchers had .506.

We can see clearly that hitters are the safest picks, particularly college batters within the first two rounds. Victor Wang noted that he felt the best strategy would be to draft hitters early and then stock up on pitchers. My analysis leads me to believe that drafting pitchers in the first round is a pretty good strategy. Pitchers drafted in the first round are far more likely to be productive during their first six seasons.

I broke the first round selections down further based on picks:

1-10-- 1.417 WAR/year

11-20-- 1.115 WAR/year

21-30-- .353 WAR/year

There is a drastic drop in performance between picks 11-20 and 21-30. The difference between the top 10 and 11-20 is not nearly as large.

Here is the WAR/year broken down by position. I only used the positions listed in the Baseball-Reference draft database although most players surely switched positions. I also did not include two-way players Brooks Kieschnick and Rick Ankiel. For ease I combined first baseman and third baseman into a group of corner infielders and second baseman and shortstop into middle infielders. In parenthesis are the number of players in each position and I've included the standard deviations as well.

outfielders (64)-- .977 WAR/year 1.369 SD

middle infielders (48)-- .561 WAR/year 1.609 SD

corner infielders (41)-- 1.046 WAR/year 1.894 SD

catchers (29)-- .829 WAR/year 1.107 SD

right-handed pitchers (151)-- .314 WAR/year .863 SD

left-handed pitchers (55)-- .404 WAR/year 1.039 SD

I think the most interesting note from this is that lefties outperformed righties. This could obviously be due to the fact that there are far fewer lefties than righties which makes them that much more valuable to a team and there is also greater variation among southpaws.

Mike Hazen Interview

2010-01-24T14:39:00.000-08:00

Minor League Ball posted an excellent interview with Boston Red Sox farm director Mike Hazen. Hazen oversees the minor league operations and he discussed some of the organization's philosophy and the progression of individual players.

I was particularly interested in his responses regarding promoting players. This is can a crucial aspect of a prospect's progression and requires significant input from various sources before a decision is made.

MLB draft vs. International free agent market

2010-01-15T12:26:00.001-08:00

The recent singing of Aroldis Chapman for $30.25 million has got me thinking. The number one pick in this year's draft, Stephen Strasburg, is almost universally regarding as a better pitching prospect yet he signed for "only" $15.1 million. I say "only" because this was a record amount of guaranteed money for a draft pick. Still, why is it that the better pitcher in Strasburg received half as much money as Chapman?

The problem with this current system is that the International free agents hold a significant amount of bargaining power, where as the draft picks are subject to the team's will and the MLB's slotting system. The international players are free to negotiate with any team they wish which causes bidding wars thus driving up contract values. Chapman took up residence outside of the U.S. upon defecting Cuba just so he would not be subjected to the MLB draft and it appears this was a wise move on his part.

My question is at what point will we see American players leave the country and play in foreign leagues so they will be able to skip the draft and become free agents. We have already begun to see this is high school basketball where players have chosen to skip college and play overseas for a season or two before coming back to play in the NBA. Obviously, the competition levels, degree of difficulty and other factors are much different in baseball but for a supreme talent like Strasburg or an up and coming phenom like Bryce Harper, this could possibly be a lucrative avenue to pursue.

I am not suggesting this is feasible or even a good idea but it just goes to show the vast inequalities that exist between the two markets.

Red Sox Front Office Strategy

2010-01-08T12:26:00.000-08:00

The 2009-2010 off-season has been a busy for Red Sox Nation. It has also demonstrated a clear strategy by the baseball operations staff as they make a strong commitment towards run prevention. Instead of targeting a high profile bat (Adrian Gonzalez comes to mind) they have signed two of the best defenders at their respective positions in Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron. Oh yeah, both can hit a little bit as well. Again with the signing of John Lackey they have also shown their willingness to pay top dollar for run prevention, pitching and defense.

There have been several studies done on post-season performance and most of the results seem to indicate that its pitching and defense, not run production, that is most important in winning the World Series. Obviously luck has something to do with it as well, but this off-season the Red Sox have done their best to assemble a team that has the right ingredients to make a deep post-season run. This may look like a different Red Sox team that in years past, but, on paper at least, this may be the best team we have had in years.

Even better is that the Sox will have a significant portion of their payroll coming off the books following the 2010 season which will certainly pave the way for the organization's top prospects, many of whom may be ready to make an impact by 2011.

Baseball America Red Sox Top 10 prospects

2009-12-28T13:54:00.001-08:00

Baseball America has released its top 10 prospect list for the Boston Red Sox.

Its hard to argue with their selections, although Michael Bowden is notably absent. The one player I think they have drastically underrated is Anthony Rizzo. As I noted over at SOSH,

I'm pretty high on Rizzo, to me he could be a better first base prospect than Anderson. He posted a .357 wOBA as a 20-yr old in Advanced-A and is a solid defender +5 according to Total Zone. His home run power has been a little slow to develop but he has good size and did hit 37 doubles last year.

Rizzo was diagnosed with Hodgkin's Lymphoma back in May of 2008 and after undergoing chemo he was declared cancer free in November of '08. He was a sixth round pick in 2007 and excelled in his first full season this year. He has good gap power (37 doubles) and should add more home run pop as he returns to full strength. With his great defensive ability he may actually be a better prospect than Lars Anderson. He will likely start the year in Advanced-A and could move up to Double-A by mid-season.

Red Sox rookie relievers

2009-12-21T10:54:00.000-08:00

After letting Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito walk the Red Sox could be looking for some depth in the bullpen. They have already added Boof Bonser, Scott Atchison, Fabio Castro, Robert Manuel, and Ramon A. Ramirez but the organization also has some options in the minor leagues.

Dustin Richardson

Richardson spent time in Portland and Pawtucket last season. He is a strikeout machine with an 11.37 K/9 in 63.1 innings in Double-A and 13.51 K/9 in 10.2 innings in Triple-A. He posted a 3.12 FIP for Portland although his K/BB rate was a lackluster 1.86. He has the stuff to get hitters out but his command must improve. The left-hander had 18 K's in 11.2 IP in the Arizona Fall League.

Richard Lentz

Lentz averaged 12 K/9 for Portland in 36 innings. His 1.17 K/BB rate this season was not as encouraging but if he continues to strike out batters at such a high rate he may earn a chance. He also struck out 16 batters in 15.1 innings in the AFL.

2010 Red Sox rookie development program

2009-12-14T12:09:00.001-08:00

The Red Sox will be having their rookie development program at Boston College this year. According to Sox Prospects, the 11 players selected are Casey Kelly, Randor Bierd, Kyle Weiland, Junichi Tazawa, Ryne Miller, Felix Doubront, Luis Exposito, Jose Iglesias, Yaimaco Navarro, Che Hsuan Lin, and Ryan Kalish.

Managment obviously feels strongly about these prospects and considers them at least close to major league ready. Kelly is the biggest name on the list although Tazawa, Iglesias, Lin and Kalish are all notable players as well.

Red Sox Rule Five Draft

2009-12-10T08:29:00.000-08:00

The Boston Red Sox made no selections during today's Rule Five Draft; however, they did have two players chosen in the first round by other teams. Jorge Jimenez, who played third base for Portland all of last year and Armando Zerpa a reliever who pitched in Single-A and Advanced-A.

Jimenez posted a .361 wOBA and at 25-years old was a little advanced for the Eastern League. His defense is considered average at best and I doubt he will stick on the 40-man roster all season.

Zerpa posted good strikeout numbers (8.19 K/9 in Salem and 9.80 K/9 in Greenville). He struggled with his command a bit in the Carolina League which caused his FIP to fall from 2.16 with Greenville to 5.48 with Salem. He has a deceptive, low arm slot delivery which makes him very tough on lefties. He also has decent movement and induces a good amount of groundballs. He is just 22 but has never pitched above Advanced-A so it could also be tough for a MLB team to keep room for him. I do think he has upside as a potential left-handed specialist.

The usefulness of college baseball statistics

2009-12-09T13:07:00.000-08:00

I asked Mr. Bill James the following question on his website, BJOL.

Me: Mr. James, I'm hoping to conduct a study regarding the usefulness of college statistics for a college class next semester. I was wondering what your thoughts were regarding the matter. Have you done any previous studies on the how these statistics translate into pro ball?

BJ: I have studied that at considerable length. I can't tell you the POSITIVE things I might know, because those would be property of the Red Sox, but I can tell with a fair degree of confidence that I do not believe it is possible to project professional hitting accomplishments based on college statistics, for two reasons. First, the metal bats DO make it a significantly different game. And second, the distance that hitting ability must be projected from college to the majors introduces a high degree of unreliability. You're projecting players from a competition level at which no player or virtually no player is at a major league level of ability in any phase of the game. It's very different from projecting players from Double-A or Triple-A, where there are many players who ARE major league in three or four phases of their game, but just missing a couple of elements.

This is about the response I had expected. I would be very curious to see what positive things he has found out. I still maintain the hypothesis that certain collegiate numbers can have some predictive value, especially strikeout and walk numbers since these are not as influenced by the metal bats (although strength of competition may factor in here). I hope to study this in the near future and find out if in fact my hypothesis holds true.

I would like to thank Mr. James for taking the time to answer my question.

Casey Kelly to become a full-time pitcher

2009-12-07T16:50:00.001-08:00

Casey Kelly and the Red Sox will abandon the shortstop experiment and focus full-time on pitching.

"We feel like he has a chance to pitch in the upper Minors and he's talented," said Epstein. "He could, if everything breaks his way, force his way on to the Major League radar screen sometime in the next year or two. We think he'll benefit from being in the big league atmosphere and working with [pitching coach] John Farrell, from seeing how Jon Lester and Josh Beckett, among others, go about their business, as he completes this transition of being a full-time pitcher."

As I referenced in a previous article, Kelly projects as a solid starting pitcher in the major leagues. He has excellent command and finesse for a pitcher of his age and experience level.

Rule Five Draft Prospects

2009-12-06T22:04:00.001-08:00

The annual Baseball Winter Meetings mark an exciting time in baseball. Among the important events that takes place is the Rule Five draft. Here is a brief overview of the draft and who is eligible for selection. Among the potentially valuable prospects eligible this year are:

Josh Tomlin
Andrew Baldwin
Michael Crotta
Erik Arnesen
Ryan Mullins

Thoughts on Pedroia moving to SS

2009-12-02T21:47:00.001-08:00

I felt it necessary to chime in on the talks of Dustin Pedroia possibly moving over to shortstop. The idea of a player moving from second base to shortstop goes against conventional wisdom, particularly Bill James' defensive spectrum, although several player have made the move recently with success. I think Pedroia compares favorably to Marco Scutaro, who is a possible free agent target for the Sox, and David Eckstein, at least in terms of size and defensive skill set.

His career UZR at second is 21.7 (7.4/150 games) and his Total Zone numbers are also strong (4.7 runs above average per year). He rated as the fifth best defensive second baseman according to the Fan's Scouting Report. There will undoubtedly be concerns about his arm strength but his quick release and footwork should make up that somewhat. Keep in mind Pedroia was drafted as a shortstop out of Arizona State and played 132 games at the position throughout the minor leagues.

The Red Sox have had a major void at the position ever since trading Nomar Garciaparra. Hanley Ramirez was once billed as the future franchise shortstop but he was traded in a deal that brought in Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. Since then the Sox have been left with a pair of free agent busts in Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo. The organization has made major strides and investments in signing and drafting amateur prospects, most notably Jose Iglesias, Yamaico Navarro, David Renfroe, Jose Vincio, and Derrick Gibson, although all of these players are still several years away from being ready to contribute and none of them have played above Low-A. Jed Lowrie is still in the picture as well but he has struggled through a rash of injuries. The organization is not ready to give up on him but it is clear he still needs some time to develop.

The free agent market for shortstops this year is bleak looking and unless the Red Sox can pull off a trade moving Pedroia over may be their best option to fill this void. Replacing Pedroia at second base would be less of a concern as there are more quality options available at this position. Clearly he is confident in his abilities to play the position and I am sure the Red Sox front office will be evaluating all of their alternatives.

Red Sox Minor League Park Factors

2009-11-28T14:19:00.000-08:00

On the left are the 2009 single season park factors for the Red Sox affiliates. Single Season park factors are not ideal to use and can be influenced heavily by skewed data, unfortunately, I do not have the necessary data to piece together multi-year park factors. I did find 2008's 3-year park factors and have included those for reference. The 2009 season PFs are on the left and the 2009 PFs are on the right.

2009 2008 (3-year weighted)

Pawtucket

Runs- 1.02 Runs- 1.04

Hits- .96 Hits- .99
HR- 1.47 HR- 1.11

Portland
Runs-1.08 Runs- .99
Hits- 1.01 Hits- .98
HR- .96 HR- 1.02

Salem
Runs- 1.08 Runs- .97
Hits- 1.07 Hits- .99
HR- .66 HR- .88

Greenville
Runs- .99 Runs- 1.03
Hits- 1.00 Hits- 1.02
HR- .99 HR- 1.17

Lowell
Runs- 1.03 Runs- 1.07
Hits- .98 Hits- 1.02
HR- .65 HR- .95

Gulf Coast
Runs- 1.40
Hits- 1.13
HR- .76

Red Sox claim Robert Manuel

2009-11-23T17:48:00.000-08:00

This past Friday the Red Sox claimed right-handed pitcher Robert Manuel from Seattle. Manuel is 26 years old and was signed as a non-drafted free agent in '05 and has outperformed every expectation. He made his major league debut in July for the Reds before being traded to Seattle just before the deadline.

Manuel has been a reliever for the majority of his career (he was named best Double-A relief pitcher in '08). He has clearly demonstrated great command with a 5.14 K/BB rate in his four minor league seasons. His has also posted some strong Major League Equivalents including a 2.92 MLE FIP for Double-A in '08 and a 3.75 MLE FIP for Triple-A in '09 with the Reds organization. This is a strong indicator of potential success in the major leagues.

One area of concern is his strong fly-ball tendencies. According to minorleaguesplits.com he has a career fly ball rate of 49.2 percent (compared to just 33.2 percent GB). This is alarming considering Fenway Park's short outfield dimensions in left and right fields. So far in his career he has been able to do a fairly nice job of limiting home runs (just .5 per 9 innings) but this could change once he faces major league opponents on a regular basis.

According to fangraphs PitchFX, Manuel throws a fastball, change-up, and slider. His fastball sits in the high 80's and has some nice late movement that runs in on right handers.

Overall, a nice pickup for the Sox. He is a low risk guy who could eventually add some depth in the bullpen.

Red sox minor league wOBA vs. Signing Bonus

2009-11-20T22:36:00.000-08:00

I have compiled a list of all the singing bonuses I could find for Red Sox players. Several players have multiple entries and I did not combine their stats from different levels. As you can see there was very little correlation for the 2009 season.

Notable minor league FAs

2009-11-17T19:40:00.000-08:00

Russ Adams

Adams was a first round pick of the Blue Jays back in 2002. In parts of seven minor league seasons the middle infielder has hit .277/.354/.401. He also has over a full season’s worth of major league plate appearances with 993 and has posted a measly .302 wOBA, although in he has been plagued by a low BABIP of .268. His defense is slightly below average at shortstop and he will likely never develop into an everyday player but there is still time for him to emerge as a valuable utility man.

Chris Burke

Burke has his fair share of major league experience, although as his career .301 wOBA, he hasn’t had much success. His value comes as a fielder where he is above average and can play second base or in the outfield. He is at least a replacement level player, a cheap utility player. He will turn 30 in March and I’m sure some time will be willing to give him a shot.

Chris Capuano

Capuano has logged 771.2 innings in the majors and holds a career FIP of 4.49. He was named an all-star in 2006 but missed all of 2008 after having his second Tommy John surgery. He threw only nine innings in rehab assignments last season. I have not heard much regarding his recovery and, at this point, he could be damaged goods, but he is a low risk-high reward type of singing if he can prove he still has some miles left in his elbow.

Chris Lubanski

Lubanski was the fifth overall pick by the Royals in 2003. His minor league career has been plagued by strikeouts (24 percent strikeout rate) although he has also shown a decent walk rate (9.1 percent). He has demonstrated some power over his career (.188 ISO) and he will turn just 25 in March.

Drew Macias

Macias has spent the past seven seasons in the Padres organization earning several brief cameos with the major league club. He does not have great power but he is a disciplined hitter (10.9 percent walk rate) and he plays solid defense in the outfield. He will turn 27 this March.

Humberto Sanchez

Sanchez was once a promising prospect with the Tigers organization until he underwent Tommy John surgery missing all of 2007. He has played the last two seasons with the Yankees and has seemed to regain most of his stuff back. He struck out 36 hitters in 35.2 innings. He is still young at just 26 years of age and has potential to be an effective reliever if he can stay of the DL.

Erick Threets

Threets was originally drafted by the Giants but spent last season with the Dodgers. He has had brief stints in the majors but injury problems have plagued him in the past. Once heralded as a flame-throwing lefty, he has settled in the mid-90s and his command is significantly improved. He is extremely tough on left-handed batters (opposing lefties have hit just .205 off him since 2005) and he induces plenty of groundballs (61.9 percent in 2009). He has the making of a left-handed specialist if he can manage to stay healthy and maintain command of his pitches.

Boston Red Sox minor league free agents

2009-11-16T20:16:00.000-08:00

A listing of all 2009 minor league players eligible for free agency can be found here.

10 Red Sox players made the list including the following;

RHP Devern Hansack

LHP Derrick Loop

RHP Dave McKae

RHP Jarrod Plummer

RHP Jose Vaquedano

RHP Charlie Zink

INF Angel Chavez

INF Travis Denker

INF Ignacio Suarez

OF Brad Correll

None of these players are notable prospects, with the possible exception being Derrick Loop. Loop posted strong numbers with Salem (2.62 FIP, 9.71 K/9) although he was old for the league.

There are plenty of other interesting names on the list of other team's free agents. I'll have more on this in the coming days.

2009 red sox minor league offensive statistics

2009-11-16T01:56:00.000-08:00

Please note the spreadsheet is in alphabetical order. You can also view this by clicking the link to the left.

2009 Red Sox minor league pitching statistics

2009-11-16T01:50:00.000-08:00

2010 Red Sox Projections | Offense

2009-11-15T22:48:00.000-08:00

The 2010 CHONE batting projections have been released over at baseballprojection.com for all major league teams.

A few players stood out to me for the Red Sox:

Natale, Jeff .254/.357/.356

Anderson, lars .230/.310/.355

Jimenez, Jorge .262/.301/.362

Reddick, Josh .241/.283/.373

Now, I'm not quite sure how these projections are calculated, although I assume he uses MLEs for the minor league players. I'm quite surprised that Natale has a projected OBP of .357, which would make him an above average major league player. I calculated his 2009 MLE at .238/.331/.322 which is certainly a large discrepency.

On the other end of the spectrum I was a shocked to see Reddick's projections were so low. This is a kid who raked at the Double-A level and held his own during his stint with the Red Sox.

Stephen Fife

2009-11-14T14:49:00.001-08:00

A player to look out for in the Red Sox organization is right-handed pitcher Stephen Fife. Fife was a third round pick in 2008 out of Utah. Fife had a strong 2009 season between Greenville and Salem making a combined 18 starts between the two levels. Fife works primarily off of his sinking two-seam fastball which sits in the low-90s. He uses this pitch to generate ground balls and has been very effective with a 58 percent groundball rate in his two minor league seasons. He also mixes in a curve ball and a change-up in his arsenal. Despite missing time early in the '09 season with what was termed "weakness in his throwing shoulder", Fife displayed phenomenal control and command en route to a breakout season. His 6.14 strikeout-to-walk rate was best in the organization among pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched. All told he had 86 strikeouts in 87.1 total innings. He posted a 1.97 FIP in eight starts for Greenville and a 3.69 FIP in his 10 starts for Salem. Fife's future is bright. Groundball pitchers, particularly at Fenway park, have proven to have good success. If he can continue to develop and command his secondary offerings he could develop into a middle of the rotation guy. If not, he could become a valuable reliever. For now we can expect Fife to remain in the starting rotation as he tweaks his curve and begins to work his slider back into the mix. expect the Red Sox to be aggressive and start him in Portland in 2010.

A closer look at Casey Kelly

2009-11-14T13:09:00.001-08:00

One of the more intriguing two-way prospects in the minor leagues is Red Sox shortstop and pitcher Casey Kelly. Kelly, just 20 years of age, was a first round pick in 2008 out of Sarasota High School.

He made his debut in 2008 as a shortstop and in 130 at-bats between Rookie-A and Low-A he struggled with a .255 on-base percentage and .331 slugging percentage. He walked just six times and struck out a whopping 42 times.

He began the 2009 season in the starting rotation in the South Atlantic League (Single-A). He was dominant in his nine starts and quickly was promoted to Advanced-A where he enjoyed similar success in eight starts at that level. In 95 combined innings Kelly registered a 2.73 FIP and had a remarkable 4.63 strikeout to walk rate.

The Red Sox organization made a conscious to shut Kelly down following his Futures Game appearance and he was the re-assigned to the Gulf Coast League to adjust back to playing shortstop for the remainder of the season. Once again Kelly struggled at the plate. In his 162 at-bats with the Rookie-A and Single-A teams. He posted a disappointing .302 on-base percentage and a .340 slugging percentage. He is currently playing for the Mesa Solar Sox of the Arizona Fall League.

Kelly has continually expressed a desire to be an everyday player, however, after his success on the mound and struggle at the plate the two-way experiment is likely to end next season. Offensively he is very raw. He possesses power potential but his swing is rather long and he has yet to show much plate discipline. He is very athletic (he turned down a chance to play football at Tennessee) and a smooth, fluid fielder but his large frame might be better suited for third base if he continues to be an everyday player.

Kelly clearly shows the most promise as a right-handed pitcher. He has a fresh arm and has excellent control of his offerings. He throws three pitches, a fastball, curve ball, and change-up. His low-nineties fastball rates as only average but his hard, 12-6 curve ball is a true plus pitch. He will also mixes in his heavy sinking change. He has solid command of all three pitches and shows poise and mound presence beyond his years. He does a nice job of keeping the ball low in the zone.

My concern about Kelly is that he will be reluctant to make the necessary steps to becoming a full-time pitcher. There were reports that he would only sign with a major league team if he was allowed to play shortstop and he clearly wants to play there. While the Red Sox have given him his shot, he has shown much more potential as a pitcher. Soon he will need to focus primarily on pitching and this is a change he will need to wholly embrace.

2009 Red Sox minor league pitching statistics

2009-11-12T23:14:00.001-08:00

I have completed my spreadsheet containing all Red Sox prospects pitching stats from Triple-A down to the Gulf Coast League (Rookie-A).

You can find this information on the google doc I uploaded.

2009 Red Sox Minor League Pitching Statistics

Daniel Bard's slider

2009-11-08T18:32:00.000-08:00

Red Sox blog Fire Brand of the AL ran an interesting piece from guest blogger and PitchFX guru Harry Pavlidis.

The article details Daniel Bard's slider and its development over the course of the season. Its an insightful read and I strongly recommend all to check it out

Red Sox Prospects Total Zone 2009

2009-11-06T19:59:00.000-08:00

Here you can find find the Total Zone defensive numbers for all Red Sox prospects for the 2009 season. The numbers are compiled using data generously provided by Sean Smith. Baseball-Reference has more information on Total Zone.

2009 Total Zone statistics

Jonathan Hee's +20 runs was tops among all third baseman in the minors last season.

Updated Top 10 Prospects

2009-11-05T19:47:00.000-08:00

As you can see from the sidebar at left, we have updated the organization's top 10 prospect list. The rankings are compiled using a variety of scouting reports as well as minor league statistics, with heavy emphasis on the 2009 season. The rankings are as follows:

1. Casey Kelly

Kelly saw action on the mound and at shortstop, although his future is most certainly as a pitcher.

2. Ryan Westmoreland

In his first professional season Westmoreland posted a .401 on-base percentage and slugged .484. He was also 19-19 in stolen bases.

3. Josh Reddick

Reddick played well enough in Double-A to warrant a promotion to the majors. He posted a .382 wOBA and .871 OPS in Portland.

4. Michael Bowden

Bowden had somewhat of a down year in Triple-A. His 1.87 K/BB rate and 4.08 FIP were above his career averages. Still, Bowden is possibly the closest major league ready pitcher in the organization.

5. Junichi Tazawa

In his first professional season Tazawa quickly rose from Double-A to the majors. He made 18 starts for Portland with a 3.35 FIP and 3.38 K/BB rate. He also threw 25.1 innings with the Red Sox, allowing 43 hits and striking out 13 while walking 9.

6. Lars Anderson

Anderson began the year as the top prospect but faltered in his second go-around with Portland. His wOBA slipped to .315 and his ISO dropped to .112 after a breakout performance in 2008.

7. Ryan Kalish

Kalish had the biggest breakout in 2009. He tore up Advanced-A with a .513 slugging percentage and .428 wOBA. In Double-A he had a wOBA of .360 and slugged .440 while stealing 14 bags.

8. Stolmy Pimentel

The 19-year old exhibited excellent control while strikeout out nearly 8 batters per nine innings in Single-A. He had a 3.62 FIP in 117.2 innings.

9. Anthony Rizzo

Rizzo split time between Single-A and Advanced-A posting wOBAs of .390 and .357 respectively. His power is still developing but with his 6'3 220 pounds frame he should be able to generate more home run power in the future.

10. Ryan Lavarnway

Lavarnway has massive power and belted 21 home runs to go along a with a .255 ISO this season in Single-A. He was a little old for the competition level so it should be interesting to see how well he retains his power at higher levels.

Evaluating the Red Sox Jeremy Hermida trade

2009-11-05T19:25:00.000-08:00

Today the Boston Red Sox swapped pitching prospects Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez for Florida Marlins outfielder Jeremy Hermida. Hermida is roughly a slightly above average replacement level player. His career wOBA is .336 and his defense has been worth negative 26.7 runs total. Hermida will likely platoon and be used as a left-handed bat off the bench. Hunter Jones is a lefty reliever who spent most of 2009 with Pawtucket. In '09 he had 6.62 K/9 and 4.09 BB/9, the lowest K-BB ratio of his career. He also posted a 4.86 FIP in 2009. 2008 was a much more productive season for Jones as he had a FIP of 2.83 and a K/BB rate of 3.57 Jose Alvarez is a 20-year old lefty. His small frame (5'11 150 lbs) is a concern and could possibly keep him in the bullpen in the future. In 14 games in Low-A (12 starts) he posted an oustanding 6.30 K/BB rate and a 2.96 FIP. He had less success coming out of the bullpen in Advanced-A but still posted a 3.56 FIP. He is not a big strike out guy and will probably struggle in the higher levels of the minors. Overall it's a good move for the Sox. They acquire an replacement level major league bat for the cost of two fringe prospects. They Red Sox have plenty of more talented pitching depth ahead of these two.

Jonathan Hee

2009-10-25T16:51:00.000-07:00

Using data kindly provided by Sean Smith I have access to all minor league player's total zone ratings. Total Zone is a defensive measure that is similar to UZR or the +/- system. The calculations are based off of the number of balls hit in a player's zone and the number of plays made.

Red Sox prospect Jonathan Hee rated as the best fielding third baseman this season. His defense was worth 16 major league equivalent runs. This should come as no shock to Red Sox fans as Hee, a 21st round pick in 2008 out of Hawaii, won a gold glove in college as the best defensive shortstop in Division-1.

Hee's bat has been slow to develop. In 322 at bats for Salem Hee posted an on-base percentage of .296. Hee's future will be determined by how well he hits in the future. Clearly he has the glove to play infield in the majors. He has pretty good plate discipline, but he needs to reach base more often to garner looks from the front office.

Red Sox Minor League Offense Stats

2009-10-16T13:11:00.000-07:00

Red Sox Minor League Offense Stats

I have finally completed the complete offensive statistics for every player from Pawtucket to the Gulf Coast League. For simplicity sake I only included prospects and not rehabbing major league players. The spreadsheet includes traditional and non-traditional numbers like BaseRuns, Runs Created, Gross Production Average, Secondary Average, Equivalent Average, etc.

For fun I decided to run a regression between walk percentage and strikeout percentage among all minor league players in Boston's system this season. The results werw about what I expected, a mild correlation between the two. Below is the scatterplot, with BB% on the Y axis and K% on the X axis. The trend line was y=.0772x+7.659.

The R was .884 and the R-squared was .782. Basically there is a pretty strong positive relationship between K% and BB%, at least among Red Sox prospects.

Red Sox season ends abruptly

2009-10-11T14:10:00.000-07:00

Boston's 2009 campaign came to a disappointing end today at the hands of the Los Angeles Angels. While the players may take some time off to recuperate from the rigorous demands of playing 165 games, the front office will be busy making roster decisions.

The 40-man rosters must be set by November 20th. Any minor league player who has played for 4 or 5 seasons (depending on their age upon signing) is eligible for the Rule 5 draft which is held during the Baseball Winter Meetings on December 10.

December 1st is the last day for the Red Sox to offer salary arbitration.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox Fall Instructional League is underway. The team includes 2009 1st round pick Reymond Fuentes as well as top prospects Casey Kelly and Jose Iglesias. A ful roster can be found here

The potential market growth of baseball

2009-09-30T13:52:00.000-07:00

Warning, this is a non-red sox related article.

An interesting piece ran in Xconomy today about the Baseball World Cup qualification in Sweden. The premise of the article is about the "start-up" and entrepreneurial atmosphere of Baseball in Sweden.

The reason I bring this up is because of the great potential for baseball to spread its market into Europe and across the globe. We have already seen the Latin American community and emerging asian markets embrace the game, why not Europe?

These European countries should learn lessons from minor league baseball organizations. Minor league teams face similar challenges with smaller stadiums and fan bases. They must learn to maximize their revenue and increase their marketing and promotional efforts.

Baseball might not be an instant hit in Sweden or other countries, but with time and effort, baseball could earn a large following in these foreign nations. This will only help the game here in America. More fans means larger merchandising revenue and it could also lead to potential scouting camps in these nations down the road.

Offensive Environments in the Minor Leagues

2009-09-20T11:33:00.000-07:00

When evaluating prospects it is crucial to consider the offensive environment they play in. We'll take a look at every league in the minors. Note that all statistics are per game and the triple slash notes the league averages.

Triple-A

International League -.262/.328/.395
Runs- 4.297
2B- 1.826
3B- .184
HR- .751
BB- 3.069
K- 6.664
SB- .737

Pacific Coast league- .272/.341/.418
Runs- 4.879
2B- 1.863
3B- .258
HR- .865
BB- 3.355
K- 6.664
SB- .705

Double-A

Eastern League- .258/.332/.385
Runs- 4.292
2B- 1.770
3B- .212
HR- .661
BB- 3.386
K- 6.776
SB- .642

Southern League- .256/.332/.380
Runs- 4.294
2B- 1.745
3B- .209
HR- .638
BB- 3.508
K- 6.788
SB- .762

Texas League- .266/.340/.391
Runs- 4.787
2B- 1.701
3B- .229
HR- .697
BB- 3.554
K- 6.309
SB- .804

Advanced-A

California League- .270/.341/.416
Runs-5.114
2B- 1.914
3B- .350
HR- .806
BB- 3.295
K- 7.915
SB- .850

Carolina League- .256/.329/.383
Runs- 4.458
2B- 1.772
3B- .198
HR- .664
BB- 3.022
K- 6.973
SB- .941

Florida State League- .252/.329/.363
Runs- 3.927
2B- 1.538
3B- .261
HR- .518
BB- 3.022
K- 6.973
SB- .926

Class-A

Midwest League- .255/.329/.373
Runs- 4.542
2B- 1.719
3B- .278
HR- .549
BB- 3.263
K- 7.599
SB- .989

South Atlantic League- .254/.323/.368
Runs- 4.356
2B- 1.682
3B- .252
HR- .530
BB- 2.955
K- 7.724
SB- .978

Class-A Short Season

New York-Penn League- .245/.320/.350
Runs- 4.164
2B- 1.567
3B- .331
HR- .410
BB- 3.213
K- 7.674
SB- .959

Northwest League- .264/.342/.380
Runs- 5.031
2B- 1.724
3B- .250
HR- .586
BB- 3.502
K- 7.811
SB- .980

Rookie

Appalachian League- .257/.328/.383
Runs- 4.784
2B- 1.717
3B- .283
HR- .650
BB- 3.057
K- 7.921
SB- 1.106

Arizona Summer League- .263/.338/.378
Runs- 5.485
2B- 1.678
3B- .498
HR- .450
BB- 3.399
K- 8.979
SB- 1.490

Dominican Summer League- .241/.339/.329
Runs- 5.016
2B- 1.382
3B- .340
HR- .284
BB- 4.099
K- 7.486
SB- 1.498

Gulf Coast League- .238/.316/.335
Runs- 4.088
2B- 1.561
3B- .282
HR- .333
BB- 3.132
K- 7.420
SB- 1.057

Pioneer League- .273/.345/.408
Runs- 5.368
2B- 1.897
3B- .339
HR- .685
BB- 3.396
K- 7.921
SB- 1.106

Venezuelan Summer League- .265/.345/.381
Runs- 5.084
2B- 1.683
3B- .296
HR- .543
BB- 3.337
K- 6.593
SB- .920

Pawtucket Red Sox MLE

2009-09-11T13:04:00.000-07:00

For the past few weeks I have been undergoing a project to convert the Major League Equivalencies of the Pawtucket Red Sox.

To do this I have gathered a database of all players who have played for Pawtucket and then in the major leagues since 1990. I found 48 such players. I compiled all of their numbers from Pawtucket as well as their career stats in the MLB. To adjust for the differences in plate appearances I scaled everything down to the fewer number of PAs (whether that be in Triple-A or MLB) and went from there. After adjusting for PAs I divided the minor league data set by the major league data set and found the factors. After some tinkering I reduced the number of hits, extra base hits, walks, and sac flies by 12%.

Now obviously this method has some flaws. The data is not park of age adjusted and the sample size could be larger. However, when checking my data against the MLEs used by www.minorleaguesplits.com they are very similar.

Here are my MLE conversion factors:

AB	R	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	K	GDP	HBP	SF

1.016	.812	.857	.845	.898	.988	.820	.816	.688	.815	.748	.074	.865	.656	.966

And here are the numbers for the Pawtucket Red Sox. Their actual AAA numbers are on top and the raw MLEs are below that.

Spreadsheet

I am beginning to work on the pitchers, which I will hopefully have completed by next week.

Identifying flukey performance

2009-08-27T07:34:00.000-07:00

Wilfred Pichardo is putting up solid numbers for Lowell this season hitting .299/.352/.388.

The 19-year old outfielder is lightning fast and has stolen 23 bases this season (43 last year) while also avoiding double-plays (just two in two seasons).

However, Pichardo's success is fueled by an unsustainable BABIP of .430 (tops in the NY-Penn League). While it is reasonable to expect a speedy slap hitter like Pichardo to have a higher BABIP than others, this mark is well above a reasonable level. There is no way Pichardo will be able to maintain this type of luck in the future.

His .25 BB/K ratio suggests that he can stand to be a more patient hitter and he could benefit greatly from doing so.

Ryan Westmoreland shows promise

2009-08-27T07:20:00.000-07:00

Rhode Island native Ryan Westmoreland is having great success in his first season of professional baseball. Playing for the Lowell Spinners, Westmoreland has showcased all of his tools an potential.

Westmoreland is hitting .292/.396/.483 in 250 PA. His walk rate is 14.3% and he has showed a very advanced hitting approach at the plate. He is extremely athletic and has speed to burn. So far he is a perfect 17-17 in stolen base attempts.

He leads the New York-Penn League with a .423 wOBA along with wRC (both available on FanGraphs) at 47.4 runs. His speed score is 5th highest at 7.6.

While he has been mainly limited to DH duties since recovering from shoulder surgery, he does project as a solid centerfielder down the line.

Bowden's poor outing

2009-08-22T07:51:00.000-07:00

Michael Bowden's line last night against the Yankees:

2 IP, 8 hits, 7 runs, 3 walks, 0 strikeouts, 1 wild pitch, 1 hr allowed. He needed 63 pitches to record just 6 outs.

Bowden's fastball appeared to be very straight last night which might explain why he was so hittable

The pitchfx, courtesy of Brooks Baseball, also shows us that Bowden stayed away from both righties and lefties suggesting that perhaps Bowden was afraid to challenge hitters

Assessing Michael Bowden

2009-08-19T12:27:00.000-07:00

Michael Bowden's 3.20 ERA suggests that he is having a solid season. However, further analysis will reveal that Bowden has been extremely lucky this season.

Bowden's FIP is 4.16, not too bad, but his xFIP (which adjusts for league average home run rates) is a poor 4.92 and his tRA is 4.44. These numbers suggest Bowden is pitching over his head and he should regress back towards these numbers. xFIP in particular is good at predicting future ERA.

Bowden's walks are at a career high 3.36 per nine and his strikeout to walk ratio has diminished to 1.91. He has been fortunate that his BABIP is a low .254. This is unseasonably low and should spike back up towards .300 in the future.

Diagnozing Lars Anderson

2009-08-18T08:51:00.000-07:00

Lars Anderson was heralded as one of the premier hitting prospects in the game, but his season has been a disappointment thus far with a batting line of .242/.334/.360.

While his strikeouts and walks are about in line with his past results, his BABIP (.311) is significantly lower than his career mark (.387).

There is also a huge discrepency between his home and road splits. At home this season he his hitting .295/.381/.416 but on the road that becomes a poor .195/.289/.303. This is despite the fact that he his hitting 5.5% more line drives on the road and 7.9% more ground balls at home.

A quick look at the 2008 park factors for Portland's home field indicates that it plays pretty much neutral. The rest of the Eastern league favors pitchers slightly, but not to the extremes that are reflected in Anderson's splits. It could be something as simple as feeling more comfortable playing at home.

Junichi Tazawa promoted to Pawtucket

2009-07-28T17:30:00.000-07:00

Tazawa is making his Triple-A debut tonight as we speak. The 23-year old Japanese product was having a solid year for Portland is his first year playing professionally in the US.

Tazawa's FIP was 3.35 and is RA was 2.85. His component era (ERC) was 2.62 and his ERA+ was 151. His K/9 was 8.08 and his K/BB ratio was 3.38.

Tazawa is not a power pitcher, but rather he relies on his off-speed pitches to fool batters. If he continues to have such success he could find himself in Boston by next year.

Ryan Lavarnway

2009-07-26T18:29:00.000-07:00

Ryan Lavarnway was a 6th round pick in '08 out of Yale. The power hitting catcher led the NCAA in batting in 2007.

Playing with Greenville this season Lavarnway is slugging .509. His ISO is staggering .238 and 51.38% of his hits have gone for extra bases. His Power Factor (avg/slg) is 1.88, one of the highest in the entire organization.

One concern is his plate discipline. Lavarnway has struck out over 30% of at bats and his walk rate is rather low (near 8%).

His xBABIP is .294, but his actual BABIP is .347, which is pretty remarkable considering his fly ball rate is 45.7%.

One interesting note regarding his home/road splits. He is slugging .596 on the road but just .415 at home. A quick look at Greenville's park factors shows that the park depresses extra base hits, but his numbers seem a bit extreme.

If Lavarnway can stay at the catcher position his power could make him an interesting prospect to follow.

Yamaico Navarro promoted to Portland

2009-07-24T08:21:00.000-07:00

Yamaico Navarro, the 21-year old slick fielding shortstop, has been assigned to Portland after hitting .319/.373/.543 in 94 at bats for Salem. Navarro has spent time on the disabled list this season, but when healthy he has been solid this season. He has a tendency to be over aggressive at the plate with a walk rate of just 5.88%. Still, Navarro has been productive with a .333 BABIP and .17 BaseRuns per Plate Appearance.

Yamaico is the closest thing the Sox have to a shortstop prospect (although this could change when the International Free Agents report)

Alex Hassan Update

2009-07-23T14:41:00.000-07:00

Alex Hassan, Boston's 20th round pick out of Duke, was named a Cape Cod League All Star. The All Star game will be held tonight at Fenway Park. Hassan, a local kid from Milton, MA, is having a solid Summer for the Orleans Firebirds and the Sox are following him as a "draft-and-follow" meaning they can still sign him before the deadline of August 17.

The Sox like Hassan as a pitcher but he has thrown only 6 innings this summer. He has allowed 4 hits and 1 run to go along with 6 walks and 7 strikeouts. Hassan's pitching is still raw, which seems to go along with the organization's strategy recently of drafting athletic and inexperienced arms. This means pitchers have less arm abuse which may help in the future.

Offensively Hassan is batting .287/.348/.376. His walk rate is rather low (8.7%) but so is his strikeout rate (7.8%). Hassan doesn't have a lot of power, but he makes good solid contact and rarely strikes out (think Dustin Pedroia).

Hardball Times Live Blog

2009-07-19T16:11:00.000-07:00

I have recently accepted a new position as a blogger for the Hardball Times Live Blog. I am very pleased to join a site with such a sterling reputation among baseball fans. I hope to provide the same insight I have here, although my focus will be on the entire Minor Leagues not just the Red Sox.

I will still be posting regularly to Sabermetric Sox Report, although the next week or so may be slow as I get settled in.

Red Sox Minor League W-L Records

2009-07-16T09:17:00.000-07:00

As of July 14th, only 2 of the organization's minor league teams had winning records (Greenville and Lowell). Pawtucket stood at 43-44, Portland at 43-46, Salem at 43-44, Greenville at 48-39, and Lowell at 13-12.

Using Bill James Pythagorean Expectation formula, we can accurately measure a team's winning percentage based on the number of runs scored and allowed. The formula is rather simple but highly accurate.

So far Pawtucket has scored 290 runs while allowing 350. That would give us an expected winning percentage of .407 which would be roughly equal to a 35-52 record. So Pawtucket is actually outperforming expectations this year by a margin of 8 wins.

Portland has accumulated 402 runs but has allowed 426 to score. That gives us a winning % of .471, which gives us a record of 42-45, which means Portland is outperforming expectations by 1 win.

Salem has scored 401 runs and given up 376, a winning percentage of roughly .532. That means Salem's record should be around 46-41. This means Salem is underperforming by 3 losses.

Greenvile has scored 405 runs while only giving up 300, which means their winning % should be in the neighborhood of .646. Greenville's record should actually be 56-31, a difference of about 8 games. Despite's Greenville's winning record they are actually underperforming.

Lowell has scored 97 runs while allowing 82 which should allow for a winning % of .540. Lowell is about roughly where they should be with 13 wins. They are the only team to meet expectations.

What to Look for in the 2nd Half

2009-07-15T05:52:00.000-07:00

Stolmy Pimentel will continue to dominate

Pimentel has been awfully stingy this year with a FIP of 2.58 despite a BAABIP of a whopping .372. Pimentel has been the recipient of some poor defense (or bad luck) and is still mowing down opposing lineups. His LOB% is right around 70% which is just average. If Pimentel's BAABIP regresses back towards the mean of .300 in the second half he could be even better in the second half of the year.

Lars Anderson will prove he is worthy of the #1 prospect in the organization

Although I'm sure few fans doubt his credentials as a premier first baseman prospect, Anderson's power has been inexplicably down so far this season. Have no fear though, as Anderson's BABIP, LD%, and FB% are all in line with his career averages. In fact, so far through July Anderson has an OPS of .943

Casey Kelly will realize he belongs on the mound

Believe me when I say that I would love to see Kelly thrive at shortstop. The organization has a shortage of talented middle infielders. However, during his brief appearances at short last season between the Gulf Coast Red Sox and Lowell we realized one thing; he walks too little and strikes out too much. HIs K% was just under 30% while his BB% was around 4%. Now granted this was in only 141 PA and many young players struggle with plate discipline, but most young prospects do not pitch as well as Kelly does. He posted a 2.14 FIP in Greenville and a 3.33 FIP in Salem. Not to mention his combined 4.63 K/BB rate. His impeccable command as a pitcher is what makes him such a promising prospect.

Casey Kelly Futures Game PitchFX

2009-07-13T14:16:00.000-07:00

Casey kelly threw a perfect inning during his appearance in the Futures Game. It will be his last pitching appearance of the season as he has been assigned to the Gulf Coast League where he will transition to shortstop for the remainder of the year.

Data courtesy of brooksbaseball.net

League Adjusted ERA

2009-07-10T08:30:00.000-07:00

ERA+ can be a useful tool in comparing a pitcher's ERA versus the league average. Thanks to the league average information provided by the Red Sox Stats Blog, I was able to compute each player's league adjusted ERAs. An ERA+ over 100 indicates better performance than the league average and vice versa for under 100.

Using this statistic I compared several of the Sox top pitching prospects (stats are not park adjusted).

AAA- International League (lg ERA 3.85)

Michael Bowden-- 116

Clay Buchholz-- 182

AA- Eastern League (lg ERA 3.88)

Felix Doubront-- 109

Junichi Tazawa-- 124

Adv. A- Carolina League (lg ERA 4.07)

Casey Kelly-- 202

Kyle Weiland-- 99

A- South Atlantic League (lg ERA 3.63

Casey Kelly-- 324

Stolmy Pimentel-- 131

Brock Huntzinger-- 101

This really puts into perspective the dominating performance by Casey Kelly at both levels this year. Dominance may be an understatement in his case. Although we had no doubt his season was spectacular, ERA+ allows us to compare him to his peers and see that he is out-pitching his league by a wide margin.

Red Sox Pitching Depth | Stolmy Pimentel

2009-07-09T14:03:00.000-07:00

There was an article posted on FanGraphs today about the Red Sox wealth of minor league pitching talent. They mentioned Buchholz, Bowden, Doubront, Tazawa, and Kelly, yet perhaps the pitcher with the highest ceiling, Stolmy Pimentel, was listed as an afterthought.

Pimentel, an international free agent from DR signed in '06, turned 19 in Februrary. After an impressive showing with Lowell last season, Pimentel has continued to impress in Greenville this year. His 2.70 FIP (4.36 RA) is among the best for starters in the organization and he sports a 3.88 K/BB rate. What's more impressive is that Pimentel appears to be the recipient of some bad luck as well. His BABIP is an astonishing .377 (.274 last year) and he isn't stranding very many baserunners (69.62%). Pimentel appears to be having such success in large part due to his good command. At such a young age Pimentel could very well develop into the best of the bunch for the Red Sox.

Evaluating Prospects using Base Runs

2009-07-09T10:14:00.000-07:00

Base Runs (BsR) created by David Smyth is a popular method of estimating the amount of "runs created". I have used the formula that includes stolen bases and GIDP.

Here are the leaders in BsR year to date:

Tim Federowicz-- 53.49

Anthony Rizzo-- 50.82

Aaron Bates-- 46.68

Jorge Jimenez-- 42.96

Che-Hsuan Lin-- 41.88

Jason Place-- 41.43

David Mailman-- 40.66

Luis Exposito-- 40.27

Paul McAnulty-- 39.94

Lars Anderson-- 38.04

The top three names on the list are not surprising since they are each having strong statistical seasons across the board. It's good to see Anderson is still producing despite a drop in his slugging and batting averages. Also surprising to see Mark Wagner missing from the top 10, his BsR was only 33.53

What's wrong with Michael Almanzar?

2009-07-07T18:20:00.000-07:00

Michael Almanzar was perhaps the most highly touted Dominican signing of Theo's tenure. Almanzar signed for $1.5 million as a 16-year old in 2007. Almanzar is just 18 now and in his second minor league season, but his struggles are becoming increasingly apparent. Last season Almanzar was promoted to Greenville after dominating the Gulf Coast League. Despite his struggles after the promotion, he began this year back in Greenville before being sent down to Lowell last month.

His stat line between Greenville and Lowell is .198/.257/.266. Almanzar's walk and strikeout rates are roughly the same as last season, although his BABIP has dipped to .257 this year (.331 last season). He has nearly the same amount of at-bats this point in the season as he did all of last year and so far his line-drive rate is down from 19.7% in '08 to 10.9% in '09. Meanwhile his IF/F rate is up 6% from 14.4 to 20.5. He has shown no offensive improvement this year even since his demotion to Lowell. He has just 1 extra-base hit since June.

It is far to early to give up on Almanzar. He has the physical tools but is extremely raw. It could be just a matter of getting more ABs and adjusting to minor league pitching. Whatever the case, Almanzar will have to correct some major flaws before getting back on track.

Red Sox Pitching Prospects | Pitcher Abuse Points

2009-07-07T09:57:00.001-07:00

Two of the Sox highly touted pitching prospects, Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden are both having promising years in AAA right now. At 24 and 22 years old respectively they each have a chance at long careers ahead of them, chance being the keyword. Pitchers, more so than any other position, are prone to injuries, especially if they have been overused early on in their careers.

Neither Buchholz nor Bowden have exceeded 100 pitches in a start this season. Bowden has thrown 90+ pitches in just 6 of his 16 starts (38%) topping out at 98 pitches. Buchholz high pitch count this year has been 96, which he has thrown twice.

However, Buchholz has thrown over 100 pitches in each of the past 2 seasons while up with the big club in Boston. In 2007 Buchholz threw 115 pitches during his no-hitter, a PAP score of 3,375 and a stress rating of 29.35. In 2008 he 103, 113, and 107 pitches. His PAP scores were 27, 2197, and 343 and his stress scores in each of those starts were .26, 19.44, and 3.21. So in two seasons Buchholz has registered two category-3 starts (between 110-122 pitches). This may not seem like much, but this could potentially have implications down the line for Clay.

It is vital the Red Sox continue to monitor their young pitching. If you can successfully limit the number of pitches per start then the prospects will be able to throw more innings and be more effective in the future.

Red Sox Minor League Mid-Season Report

2009-07-01T20:25:00.000-07:00

C Tim Federowicz

Federowicz earned a recent promotion to Salem after dominating the Carolina League. He is posting a .979 OPS and an impressive .579 slugging percentage. He leads all Red Sox minor leaguers with 11 homeruns and also has a Gross Production Average of .317.

1B Anthony Rizzo

Rizzo, just 19 years old, also was recently promoted to Salem. Rizzo had an OPS of .859 with Greenville. His extra base hit % was an outstanding 41%. His wOBA was .374 and his secondary average was .302.

2B Ryan Khoury

Khoury's .378 OBP and 15% walk rate stand out here. Although he is struggling from the plate a bit, his secondary average is still .315.

3B Jorge Jimenez

Jimenez sports a .811 OPS and .369 wOBA. He has also drawn nearly as many walks (24) as strikeouts (30), an impressive feat for a young hitter.

SS Oscar Tejeda

From an offensive statistics standpoint, this is the organization's weakest position. Tejeda gets the nod here, although his .310 wOBA and .351 slugging are from good.

OF Josh Reddick

Reddick has since cooled off from his blistering start, but his overall stat line is still impressive. He is slugging .514. His secondart average is .354 and his wOBA stands at .373.

OF Che-Hsuan Lin

Lin's .361 OBP and speed (16 sb) make him an interesting prospect. His plate discipline is well-beyond his experience level and he is drawing walks at a rate of nearly 13%.. His speed also translates to stellar range in the outfield.

OF Dave Mailman

Mailman's performance in Greenville earned him a promotion to Salem this past week.. He posted a .824 OPS with the Drive. He had a secA of .297 and also stole 10 bases in 12 tries.

DH Aaron Bates

Bates has come back down to earth since his call-up to Pawtucket; however, for the season he still has a combined OPS of .818 and a .370 OBP. Bates isn't walking as much this season, but his raw power is still there and it should be just a mater of time before he adjusts to AAA pitching.

Honorable Mention

Mark Wagner

Ryan Lavarnway

SP Stolmy Pimentel

Pimentel's 2.70 FIP is impressive especially despite allowing a .378 BABIP. Just 19 years old, Pimentel has averaged over 8 Ks per 9 innings this season.

SP Clay Buchholz

Buchholz' 1.90 ERA and 3.13 K/BB ratio. His WHIP is .92. His BABIP is absurdly low at .212 which suggests it may be hard for him to continue his dominance, but Buchholz will continue to showcase his stuff for the front office.

SP Casey Kelly

Kelly will likely switch back to shortstop soon after the all-star break, but his future appears brightest on the mound. Between Greenville and Salem this season he has a 3.14 FIP and a 4.6 K/BB rate. His command has been superb, as is his 4.3% HR/F rate.

Mid-Season MVP -- Tim Federowicz

Mid-Season Cy Young -- Casey Kelly

Surprise Prospect -- Anthony Rizzo

Disappointing Prospect -- Michael Almanzar

An Early Look at the Rookie of the Year Candidates

2009-06-25T12:21:00.000-07:00

As we approach the All-Star break I thought it would be timely to check out how the rookies are faring. Although promising prospects Matt Wieters, David Price, Gordon Beckham, Andrew McCutchen, and Tommy Hanson were called up later than others they should not be ruled out of the Rookie of the Year contention just yet. Ryan Braun and Ryan Howard each won the award after receiving a call-up during May. For our purposes I just looked at rookies who have made significant contributions to their teams so far.

American League

The AL has been dominating by rookie pitching so far this season. Oakland closer Andrew Bailey is second highest rookie VORP at 16.5. Bailey leads rookies with 8 saves and sports an impressive 2.90 FIP. Bailey has struck out 10.15 batters per 9 innings and maintains a K/BB ratio of 2.78.

Detroit’s Rick Porcello won American League Rookie of the Month for the Month of May. Porcello, just 20 years old, has the highest VORP among rookie pitchers at 17.5. Although his 8-4 record and 3.55 ERA are impressive, his FIP is a rather pedestrian 4.82 and his K/BB rate is 1.63. Porcello has been very effective at inducing groundball outs with a GB/AO rate of 2.68 which is the second highest in the MLB.

Matt Palmer of the LA Angels is off to an impressive 6-1 record, although his other numbers do not suggest he has been having such success. His FIP stands at 4.71 and his K/BB ratio is a mediocre 1.48 and his VORP is just 6.5

Baltimore has a pair of rookie starters who have had some success. Koji Uehara, a Japanese export, has adjusted nicely to the MLB with a 3.52 FIP. He also holds an impressive 4.00 K/BB ratio. Brad Bergesen is also having a strong showing early with a 4.43 FIP. He has a 2.06 K/BB ratio and a .276 BABIP. Bergesen’s VORP is also high at 15.2.

Baltimore’s Nolan Reimold has been the best rookie hitter in the AL this year with an OPS of .884 and a .250 ISO. Reimold has also showcased his plate discipline; drawing walks at a rate of 11.2% and a .382 wOBA.

Others who may be in consideration are Matt Wieters (Baltimore), David Price ( Tampa Bay), Elvis Andrus (Texas) and Gordon Beckham (Chicago)

Verdict

Andrew Bailey has been dominating to this point and is the most deserving candidate in the American League thus far. However, it will be very hard for him to maintain the .238 BABIP. His Z-Contact % is 71.8%, well below the league average of 87.7%, which indicates that he has been able to make plenty of batters miss this season, but these numbers will be difficult for him to replicate throughout the season.

National League

Seth Smith of the Colorado Rockies leads all rookies with a .927 OPS. He also has an ISO of .197 and a wOBA at .412. Smith’s plate discipline is among the best in the league for rookies. He walks at a staggering 18.1% rate and has a BB/K ratio of 1.23. Smith has also played pretty good defense in left field posting a 3.6 UZR. Smith’s 13.4 VORP is highest among rookie position players. However, Smith has been platooning in Colorado’s outfield and hasn’t been given the playing time that his numbers suggest he deserves.

Another Rockies’ outfielder Dexter Fowler is also vying for the ROY. Fowler’s numbers are not nearly as impressive as his teammate Smith’s are, but they are still strong enough for consideration. He has a .759 OPS and a great BB rate at 12.7%. He has also swiped 13 bags this year.

Chicago Cubs pitcher Randy Well has a 3.01 FIP through 8 starts this year. He also had a 3.18 K/BB ratio and a VORP of 15.7.

Colby Rasmus is many people’s favorite to win the ROY crown. Rasmus has been with the Cardinals since Opening Day and is slugging .447 although his OBP is a feeble .312. Rasmus has a K/BB rate of just .28 and his VORP is 7.0. He has played very solid defense this season with a UZR of 11.6.

New York Mets catcher Omir Santos his hitting .290 with an OPS of .773 and an ISO of .169. Although he has a very low walk rate, his numbers are solid for a rookie catcher.

Others who may be in the race are Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh), Ramon Troncoso (Los Angeles), Tommy Hanson (Atlanta) and Casey McGehee (Milwaukee).

Verdict

Seth Smith’s numbers are vastly superior to any other NL rookie candidate. What’s more impressive is that he is doing putting together this season despite sharing time in the outfield. Even if Smith regresses a little his batting line will likely trounce that of any competitors.

* Statistics are from fangraphs.com and baseballprospectus.com

Buchholz Ready for Call-up?

2009-06-23T19:24:00.000-07:00

There are plenty of Red Sox fans clamoring for Buchholz to rejoin the Red Sox. Even Clay himself has admitted his frustration over not getting a promotion despite his impressive start. His 5-1 record, WHIP of 0.91 and 1.93 ERA suggest he has been dominating the International League with relative ease.

His other numbers tell a different story. His FIP stands at 3.46, which is still pretty good, but far from lights-out. His K-BB rate of 3.14 is below his minor league career average of 4.15. Also his K/9 are down to 8.37, below his average of 10.4.

Buchholz' LOB% is a staggeringly high 85.91% this season (75% is considered average). Now this could be due to the fact that Clay has not allowed many base runners this season. But it could also point to another factor. A high LOB% could also point to a high degree of luck that Clay has benefited from.

Bowden Struggles

2009-06-20T20:51:00.000-07:00

Bowden's rough outing last night, in which he lasted just 1 inning giving up 6 runs, signals the kind of problems Bowden has been having this year. In his 5 minor league seasons, Bowden has maintained a K-BB ratio of 3.30, but this year its down to 1.72. His K/9 are down from his average of 8.2 to just 5.9 while his walks are up nearly 1 per 9 innings (3.5 BB/9 this season). Bowden's FIP this season is 4.21, although his BABIP remains low at .250. Bowden's GB/AO rate is also near career lows at .60.

Its appears the problem lies with his lack of strikeouts and increase in walks. As with any strikeout pitcher, K's and and control are key, and right now Bowden is lacking both. This could be more of a mechanical issue than anything else.

Aaron Bates continues to rake

2009-06-19T13:02:00.000-07:00

Aaron Bates promotion to Pawtucket has done little to slow him down this season. After posting a .910 OPS in 52 games in AA, he has increased that number to .940 in his 10 games in AAA. In his 4 minor league seasons he has an OPS of .886

One cause for concern is his BB%, which has declined each of the past 2 seasons. In 2007 he walked at a rate of 14.9% per PA. In '08 this went down to 9.4% and so far this season it's at 8.1%. During this time his K% has remained steady around 20%. However, Bates has a knack for getting on base via the hit by pitch. He has been hit by 57 pitches in his minor league career, good for 3.4% of his Plate Appearances. This rate is well above average and is certainly a reason why his OBP in the minors is .399 for his career.

Casey Kelly | Hitter or Pitcher Prospect?

2009-06-18T13:21:00.000-07:00

Casey Kelly is rapidly becoming one of the Red Sox top prospects in the organization. Kelly was a first round pick out of Sarasota High School in 2008. The Red Sox originally liked him as a pitcher, but he played in Lowell last season at shortstop. This year he switched back to the mound and has dominated. The plan for Kelly this year is to throw 95 innings before going back to shortstop to finish out the season.

Between Salem and Greenville Kelly has a combined FIP of 2.76 in 71 innings. His BABIP is a stingy .245 between both levels and his WHIP is .85. Kelly has maintained superb control for a pitcher of his young age and experience level, with a K-BB ratio of 5.8 (58K-10BB) and in 4 starts in High-A Salem he has struck out 19 batters and walked only 1. His HR/F % is a minuscule 2.8%. Kelly has been particularly hard on right-handed hitters limiting them to .188 BA and .228 BABIP.

Last year Kelly split time between the Gulf Coast Red Sox Rookie team and the Lowell Spinners. In 36 games Kelly had an OPS of .586 and struck out 6 times versus 42 strikeouts. His K% was a staggering 32%, yet his BABIP .344. His SecA was a weary .162. However, in his brief 9 game stint with Lowell he posted a slugging percentage of .563 and an ISO of .219. His defense was pretty solid, posting a 3.90 range factor per game. His play in Lowell was encouraging, but at this point it is pretty apparent his future in on the mound. His plate discipline is lagging, and aside from that, his pitching has been down right dominant this season.

Bubba Bell Promoted to Pawtucket

2009-06-16T14:50:00.000-07:00

Outfielder Bubba Bell has been promoted to the Paw Sox replacing injured outfielder Jonathan Van Every. Bell has a .771 OPS, .310 babip, and a very respectable .299 secA. Bell is notorious for his hard-nosed style of play, reminiscent of Trot Nixon a few years ago. Bell was scheduled to make his debut last night but the game was postponed till today.

Using Gross Production Average to Analyze Prospects

2009-06-15T19:00:00.000-07:00

Gross Production Average is a more accurate measure of a hitter's performance. While OPS gives equal weight to OBP and SLG, GPA weighs OBP more. The statistic also reads like a batting average, with .270 being average and over .300 is considered good.

GPA

Mark Wagner .328

Aaron Bates .319

Tim Federowicz .302

Josh Reddick .294

Jonathan Van Every .286

Anthony Rizzo .280

Ryan Lavarnway .280

One of the things that struck me was that Van Every has one of the highest Gross Production Averages despite dismal .215 batting average, but 57% of his hits this season have gone for extra bases which is contributing factor to the high GPA. These players with the highest GPAs also have 6 of the 7 highest highest isolated power averages in the farm system.

ISO

Reddick .287

Lavarnway .232

Federowicz .206

Wagner .198

Rizzo .189

Bates .182

Plate Discipline in the Red Sox Minor League System

2009-06-13T12:42:00.000-07:00

Without access to statistics such as the number of pitches seen per at bat, I will attempt to identify the Red Sox most disciplined hitter in the minors. The key measures I will use are BB%, BB/K ratio, Contact %. Players must have a minimum of 80 plate appearances to qualify.

BB%

The highest bb% in the organization belong to Dusty Brown of Pawtucket (14.77%), Jon Van Every of Pawtucket (19.51%), Ryan Khoury of Portland (16.07%), Mark Wagner of Portland (15.03%) and Jared Stanley of Salem (15.04%).

BB-K Ratio

The highest walk to strikeout ratios of any Sox Hitters belong to Freddy Guzman (1.00), Zach Borowiak (1.20), Mark Wagner (1.10), Zach Gentile (1.07), and Jonathan Hee (.94).

Contact %

There are quite a few prospects with percentages of over 80%, but the notables are Freddy Guzman (90%), Zach Borowiak (89%), Mark Wagner (83%) Jonathan Hee (89%) and Zach Gentile (87%)

Results

The only prospect to rate highly in each of the categories was Portland Sea Dog's catcher Mark Wagner. In 34 games this season Wagner has 23 walks to 21 strikeouts. He is also posing an outstanding . 438 OBP and .962 OPS. His secondary average is .389 thus far.

Wagner, a 9th round pick in 2005 out of Cal-Irvine, is repeating this year in Portland after a dismal season last year in which he walked just 38 times compared to 78 strikeouts and reached base at a .304 clip. However, he had a 1.19 bb-k ratio in '07 with Lancaster and a .81 ratio in '06 in Greenville so this year is not a complete fluke.

Lars Anderson Heat Check

2009-06-11T18:36:00.000-07:00

David Ortiz is not the only Sox slugger heating up after a slow start. Lars Anderson, the Red Sox top prospect in the organization, has seen a dramatic increase in his numbers in recent weeks.

Over the last 2 weeks, he has hit .340 with a babip of .421. His line drive percentage is up 4.3% during this span (17.9% compared to a season average of 13.6%). He seems to have responded positively to a recent drop in the lineup to the 5th spot. When batting 5th, Anderson has an OPS of 1.118, compared to .728 when hitting 3rd in the order.

Some other interesting observations regarding Anderson. He is a much better hitter against relievers than starters. His OBP against starters is a pedestrian .274, but against relievers its .427. His BB-K ratio versus starters is .23 (17 BB-31 K) compared to a ratio of 1 (17 BB-17 K) against relievers.

Lars has also drawn noticeably more walks at home this season. He has walked at a rate of 13.4% per PA at home compared to just 7.8% per PA on the road. Perhaps this is why he has had more success batting at home this season.

Statistics obtained from minorleaguesplits.com

Kendal Volz | Red Sox 9th round pick

2009-06-11T14:53:00.000-07:00

The Boston Red Sox selected Kendal Volz, a big right-handed pitcher out of Baylor University. Volz was a start reliever for Team USA last summer but he could project as a starter down the line.

Statistically speaking, Volz' numbers are not that impressive. Opponents hit .277 against him while slugging .441 and an OBP of .366. He have up an alarmingly high 10 homeruns in 86 innings this season. His DICE was 4.34 and his babip was .335, both of which are pretty high numbers. Volz's K/BB ratio was only 2.05 (78 Ks to 38 BBs).

His sophomore season in 2008 was a much better performance overall. His K/BB ratio was higher at 3.04 and his DICE was nearly 2 runs lower at 2.83. He also held opponents to an OPS of .714 (compared to .807 in 2009).

Red Sox 4th round pick Jeremy Hazelbaker

2009-06-10T14:53:00.000-07:00

Jeremy Hazelbaker posted monster numbers in his junior season at Ball State. His .550 OBP was 2nd highest in D-1. His OPS was a staggering 1.274 and his babip was .491. His SecA was a staggering .645 (.500 is considered to be very good). More impressive is his plate discipline. His BB/K ratio was 1.37. His Runs Created per Plate Appearance were .315. This selection continues the theme of the emphasis on plate discipline by the Red Sox front office.

A Closer Look at Alex Wilson

2009-06-10T10:06:00.000-07:00

With their second round pick the Red Sox took Alex Wilson, a right handed pitcher out of Texas A&M. Wilson red-shirted in 2008 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery after two stellar seasons at Winthrop.

This year Wilson struck out 120 batters in 89.2 innings (1.35 K/IP) while also maintaining a 4.8 K/BB ratio. His e.r.a was 4.22, but his Defense-Independent Component E.R.A (DICE) was 1.93 and his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) was 1.87. These are very impressive numbers. Although his babip was high at .351 his large strikeout totals seemed to make up for it.

He held hitters to .344 slugging and .299 obp as well as a miniscule .643 OPS

Aaron Bates promoted to Pawtucket

2009-06-09T20:37:00.000-07:00

Aaron Bates has earned a promotion to AAA yesterday. Bates was tearing up the Eastern League with a .340 average and .910 OPS (Eastern League Average is .722). What is more impressive is his .414 babip. Bates was leading the team with 42 Runs Created

One area of concern for Bates is his plate discipline. Bates strikes out nearly three times as much as he walks (.35 bb/k ratio). As I mentioned, Bates is a .400 hitter when he puts the ball in play, but right now his high strikeout rate is holding him back. He must continue to develop his command of the strike zone.

Josh Reddick Returns to Action

2009-06-09T19:31:00.000-07:00

Portland's outfielder Josh Reddick was activated last night after being sidelined since May 1st with a strained oblique.

Before the injury Reddick was slugging .644 with an OPS of 1.010. Nearly 62% of his hits went for extra bases. His ISO was a very respectable .356 and his Secondary Average (SecA) was a ridiculous .479.

Hopefully he has not been slowed too much by the injury because Reddick's numbers speak for themselves.

Red Sox Prospect Casey Kelly

2009-04-24T12:16:00.000-07:00

Casey Kelly, the Sox 1st round pick in 2008, has been named to Baseball America's Prospect Hot Sheet. Kelly came in at #5 after throwing 10 scoreless innings for Greenville. Kelly played shortstop last year for Lowell hitting .344 but made the transition to pitcher this year and has had immediate success.

"Kelly is a prospect as both a pitcher and a shortstop, but the Red Sox have to be thrilled with the early returns on Kelly's pitching career. The team's first-round pick from the 2008 draft spent last season playing shortstop and didn't debut as a pitcher until this spring. So far, he's yet to allow a run in this first three professional pitching outings, having thrown five shutout innings in each of them. Kelly's command has been superb as he's given up only 10 hits in 15 innings and issued just two walks while fanning 12. He's also earned high marks for his composure and presence on the mound, which isn't too surprising for someone who's the son of a former big leaguer in Pat Kelly."

2009-04-20T21:09:00.000-07:00

Pawtucket shut out Lehigh Valley 2-0 behind another stellar performance by Michael Bowden. Bowden tossed 5 shutout innings allowing 3 hits and 1 walk while striking out 7. Daniel Bard picked up his 3 save of the year striking out 2 in his 1 inning of work.
Portland's game vs. new Britain was rained out. No make up date has been announced
Salem's game against Wilmington was also washed out.
Greenville beat Greensboro 2-0. Stolmy Pimentel picked up his first win of the year tossing 5 shutout innings allowing just 5 hits and 5 strikeouts. Shortstop Oscar Tejeda went 3-4 with a double and a triple. Mitch Denning went 2-4 with an rbi in the win.

2009-04-19T12:03:00.000-07:00

Pawtucket beat Lehigh Valley 5-2 yesterday. Sloppy play by Lehigh, 3 errors and a combined 9 walks by pitchers contributed to the PawSox win.
Portland defeated Binghamton 12-4 using 18 hits to slug their way to victory. Josh Reddick continued his hot start going 2-5 with 2 runs scored. Lars Anderson went 4-6 with a double and Jorge Jimenez went 4-5 including a 3-run homer. Felix Doubront got the win allowing 5 hits and 2 runs in 5 innings of work.
Salem won 7-4 over Frederick. First baseman Michael Jones went 3-3 with a homerun. Zak Farkes hit a 3-run blast with 2 outs, part of a 5 run 8th inning for Salem.
Greenville fell to Greensboro 4-3 yesterday. Anthony Rizzo collected 2 doubles and 1 run in the losing effort.

Josh Reddick Makes Prospect Hot Sheet

2009-04-17T10:17:00.000-07:00

Josh Reddick is listed as the #2 hottest prospect right now according to Baseball America. He is off to a blistering start, hitting .345 (10-29) with 3 doubles, 4 rbi, and 4 homers (good for second in the entire minor league.) If he can cut down his bb-k ratio (currently 3-8) then Reddick could burst onto the scene this year as a top prospect.

2009-04-17T09:50:00.000-07:00

Pawtucket used 3 pitchers to shutout Rochester 1-0 yesterday. Left-hander Kris Johnson got the start going 5 innings giving up just 2 hits while striking out 3.
Portland fell to Binghamton 4-3. Super prospect Lars Anderson broke out of his slow start going 2-4 with 2 doubles in the losing effort.
Salem lost both games of a double header to Potomac 8-2 and 5-1. Jason Place had 3 hits and knocked in both runs in game 1. The bats were once again quiet in game 2. Josh Papelbon, younger brother of Boston's closer, took the loss giving up 4 runs on 3 hits in the final 2 inninigs.
Greenville beat Hickory 4-3. Bryan Price started the game scattering 2 hits over 5 scoreless innings. Catcher Tim Federowicz went 2-4 with a double.

2009-04-16T08:38:00.000-07:00

Pawtucket won 4-2 last night against Rochester. Sox phenom Michael Bowden got the start throwing 4 innings allowing just 1 run while striking out 3. Daniel Bard picked up his 2nd save of the year throwing the final 2 innings without allowing a hit.
Portland dropped a game to New Britain 6-3. Josh Reddick went 2-4 with a double. Lars Anderson went 0-4, dropping his average to .207 on the young season.
Salem cruised to a 12-4 win yesterday over Potomac. Ryan Kalish went 2-3 with a homer, 2 rbi, and 4 runs scored. Jason Place went 3-5 with a double, 2 rbi, and 3 runs scored. Louis Exposito went 2-5 with 3 rbi as well.
Greenville lost 8-0 to Hickory yesterday. The line bright spot was Michael Almanzar, a promising third baseman, went 2-4 with a double.

2009-04-15T10:05:00.000-07:00

Pawtucket lost 6-5 to Rochester despite 2 homeruns from Jeff Bailey
Portland defeated New Britain 4-3 behind a solid start from Junichi Tazawa. Tazawa picked up his first win of the year throwing 6 innings and allowing only 1 run. Josh Reddick hit his first homerun of the season in the win.
Salem's game versus Potomac was postponed due to rain.
Greenvile outlasted Hickory 2-1 in 15 innings last night. Brock Huntzinger started the game going 5 innings allowing only 1 run. The bullpen threw 10 scoreless innings and allowed only 1 hit to earn the victory.

About the Author

2009-04-14T14:47:00.000-07:00

I am a business student at Boston College. I have been a lifelong fan of the Boston Red Sox and I have a strong interest in baseball statistics and I thought people might be interested in reading about the Sox top prospects. This blog is maintained as a hobby although I do hope to pursue a career in the baseball industry.