Red Sox blog Fire Brand of the AL ran an interesting piece from guest blogger and PitchFX guru Harry Pavlidis.

The article details Daniel Bard's slider and its development over the course of the season. Its an insightful read and I strongly recommend all to check it out

Red Sox Prospects Total Zone 2009

Here you can find find the Total Zone defensive numbers for all Red Sox prospects for the 2009 season. The numbers are compiled using data generously provided by Sean Smith. Baseball-Reference has more information on Total Zone.

2009 Total Zone statistics

Jonathan Hee's +20 runs was tops among all third baseman in the minors last season.

Updated Top 10 Prospects

As you can see from the sidebar at left, we have updated the organization's top 10 prospect list. The rankings are compiled using a variety of scouting reports as well as minor league statistics, with heavy emphasis on the 2009 season. The rankings are as follows:

1. Casey Kelly

Kelly saw action on the mound and at shortstop, although his future is most certainly as a pitcher.

2. Ryan Westmoreland

In his first professional season Westmoreland posted a .401 on-base percentage and slugged .484. He was also 19-19 in stolen bases.

3. Josh Reddick

Reddick played well enough in Double-A to warrant a promotion to the majors. He posted a .382 wOBA and .871 OPS in Portland.

4. Michael Bowden

Bowden had somewhat of a down year in Triple-A. His 1.87 K/BB rate and 4.08 FIP were above his career averages. Still, Bowden is possibly the closest major league ready pitcher in the organization.

5. Junichi Tazawa

In his first professional season Tazawa quickly rose from Double-A to the majors. He made 18 starts for Portland with a 3.35 FIP and 3.38 K/BB rate. He also threw 25.1 innings with the Red Sox, allowing 43 hits and striking out 13 while walking 9.

6. Lars Anderson

Anderson began the year as the top prospect but faltered in his second go-around with Portland. His wOBA slipped to .315 and his ISO dropped to .112 after a breakout performance in 2008.

7. Ryan Kalish

Kalish had the biggest breakout in 2009. He tore up Advanced-A with a .513 slugging percentage and .428 wOBA. In Double-A he had a wOBA of .360 and slugged .440 while stealing 14 bags.

8. Stolmy Pimentel

The 19-year old exhibited excellent control while strikeout out nearly 8 batters per nine innings in Single-A. He had a 3.62 FIP in 117.2 innings.

9. Anthony Rizzo

Rizzo split time between Single-A and Advanced-A posting wOBAs of .390 and .357 respectively. His power is still developing but with his 6'3 220 pounds frame he should be able to generate more home run power in the future.

10. Ryan Lavarnway

Lavarnway has massive power and belted 21 home runs to go along a with a .255 ISO this season in Single-A. He was a little old for the competition level so it should be interesting to see how well he retains his power at higher levels.

Evaluating the Red Sox Jeremy Hermida trade

Today the Boston Red Sox swapped pitching prospects Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez for Florida Marlins outfielder Jeremy Hermida. Hermida is roughly a slightly above average replacement level player. His career wOBA is .336 and his defense has been worth negative 26.7 runs total. Hermida will likely platoon and be used as a left-handed bat off the bench. Hunter Jones is a lefty reliever who spent most of 2009 with Pawtucket. In '09 he had 6.62 K/9 and 4.09 BB/9, the lowest K-BB ratio of his career. He also posted a 4.86 FIP in 2009. 2008 was a much more productive season for Jones as he had a FIP of 2.83 and a K/BB rate of 3.57 Jose Alvarez is a 20-year old lefty. His small frame (5'11 150 lbs) is a concern and could possibly keep him in the bullpen in the future. In 14 games in Low-A (12 starts) he posted an oustanding 6.30 K/BB rate and a 2.96 FIP. He had less success coming out of the bullpen in Advanced-A but still posted a 3.56 FIP. He is not a big strike out guy and will probably struggle in the higher levels of the minors. Overall it's a good move for the Sox. They acquire an replacement level major league bat for the cost of two fringe prospects. They Red Sox have plenty of more talented pitching depth ahead of these two.

Jonathan Hee

Using data kindly provided by Sean Smith I have access to all minor league player's total zone ratings. Total Zone is a defensive measure that is similar to UZR or the +/- system. The calculations are based off of the number of balls hit in a player's zone and the number of plays made.

Red Sox prospect Jonathan Hee rated as the best fielding third baseman this season. His defense was worth 16 major league equivalent runs. This should come as no shock to Red Sox fans as Hee, a 21st round pick in 2008 out of Hawaii, won a gold glove in college as the best defensive shortstop in Division-1.

Hee's bat has been slow to develop. In 322 at bats for Salem Hee posted an on-base percentage of .296. Hee's future will be determined by how well he hits in the future. Clearly he has the glove to play infield in the majors. He has pretty good plate discipline, but he needs to reach base more often to garner looks from the front office.

Red Sox Minor League Offense Stats

Red Sox Minor League Offense Stats

I have finally completed the complete offensive statistics for every player from Pawtucket to the Gulf Coast League. For simplicity sake I only included prospects and not rehabbing major league players. The spreadsheet includes traditional and non-traditional numbers like BaseRuns, Runs Created, Gross Production Average, Secondary Average, Equivalent Average, etc.

For fun I decided to run a regression between walk percentage and strikeout percentage among all minor league players in Boston's system this season. The results werw about what I expected, a mild correlation between the two. Below is the scatterplot, with BB% on the Y axis and K% on the X axis. The trend line was y=.0772x+7.659.

The R was .884 and the R-squared was .782. Basically there is a pretty strong positive relationship between K% and BB%, at least among Red Sox prospects.

Red Sox season ends abruptly

Boston's 2009 campaign came to a disappointing end today at the hands of the Los Angeles Angels. While the players may take some time off to recuperate from the rigorous demands of playing 165 games, the front office will be busy making roster decisions.

The 40-man rosters must be set by November 20th. Any minor league player who has played for 4 or 5 seasons (depending on their age upon signing) is eligible for the Rule 5 draft which is held during the Baseball Winter Meetings on December 10.

December 1st is the last day for the Red Sox to offer salary arbitration.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox Fall Instructional League is underway. The team includes 2009 1st round pick Reymond Fuentes as well as top prospects Casey Kelly and Jose Iglesias. A ful roster can be found here