Monday, October 25, 2010

College Baseball Equivalencies

This is a project I've been working on and off for several months now. I plan to delve into these results much more in-depth and expand the sample size but I decided to post my preliminary results here for everyone to see.

Basically what I did was take the top 75 offensive college players who were drafted and played rookie ball in 2009. I weighted their stats by the lowest PA total (in college or in RK) for all players. Once the PA were equal I compared all the college numbers to the RK league numbers and created factors, which we will call Rookie League Equivalencies (RKLE).

The factors can be applied to a player's adjusted college stats to give a rough projection of how he will perform in Rookie-ball.

The factors are as follows:
.HR- .48
2b- .80
3b- .89
BB%- .88
HBP- .73
K%- 1.32
sb- .93
ISO- .59
wOBA- .85

The key stats I put in bold. As I had hypothesized walks carry over pretty highly. Strikeouts are likely to increase, so a player who strikes out a lot in college will strike out even more in the low levels of the minors.

Obviously one season of players is not a huge sample size and I will ideally add to this database. I also plan to expand to Low-A and other levels if there are large enough samples

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