League Adjusted ERA

ERA+ can be a useful tool in comparing a pitcher's ERA versus the league average. Thanks to the league average information provided by the Red Sox Stats Blog, I was able to compute each player's league adjusted ERAs. An ERA+ over 100 indicates better performance than the league average and vice versa for under 100.

Using this statistic I compared several of the Sox top pitching prospects (stats are not park adjusted).

AAA- International League (lg ERA 3.85)

Michael Bowden-- 116

Clay Buchholz-- 182

AA- Eastern League (lg ERA 3.88)

Felix Doubront-- 109

Junichi Tazawa-- 124

Adv. A- Carolina League (lg ERA 4.07)

Casey Kelly-- 202

Kyle Weiland-- 99

A- South Atlantic League (lg ERA 3.63

Casey Kelly-- 324

Stolmy Pimentel-- 131

Brock Huntzinger-- 101

This really puts into perspective the dominating performance by Casey Kelly at both levels this year. Dominance may be an understatement in his case. Although we had no doubt his season was spectacular, ERA+ allows us to compare him to his peers and see that he is out-pitching his league by a wide margin.

Red Sox Pitching Prospects | Pitcher Abuse Points

Two of the Sox highly touted pitching prospects, Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden are both having promising years in AAA right now. At 24 and 22 years old respectively they each have a chance at long careers ahead of them, chance being the keyword. Pitchers, more so than any other position, are prone to injuries, especially if they have been overused early on in their careers.

Neither Buchholz nor Bowden have exceeded 100 pitches in a start this season. Bowden has thrown 90+ pitches in just 6 of his 16 starts (38%) topping out at 98 pitches. Buchholz high pitch count this year has been 96, which he has thrown twice.

However, Buchholz has thrown over 100 pitches in each of the past 2 seasons while up with the big club in Boston. In 2007 Buchholz threw 115 pitches during his no-hitter, a PAP score of 3,375 and a stress rating of 29.35. In 2008 he 103, 113, and 107 pitches. His PAP scores were 27, 2197, and 343 and his stress scores in each of those starts were .26, 19.44, and 3.21. So in two seasons Buchholz has registered two category-3 starts (between 110-122 pitches). This may not seem like much, but this could potentially have implications down the line for Clay.

It is vital the Red Sox continue to monitor their young pitching. If you can successfully limit the number of pitches per start then the prospects will be able to throw more innings and be more effective in the future.

Buchholz Ready for Call-up?

There are plenty of Red Sox fans clamoring for Buchholz to rejoin the Red Sox. Even Clay himself has admitted his frustration over not getting a promotion despite his impressive start. His 5-1 record, WHIP of 0.91 and 1.93 ERA suggest he has been dominating the International League with relative ease.

His other numbers tell a different story. His FIP stands at 3.46, which is still pretty good, but far from lights-out. His K-BB rate of 3.14 is below his minor league career average of 4.15. Also his K/9 are down to 8.37, below his average of 10.4.

Buchholz' LOB% is a staggeringly high 85.91% this season (75% is considered average). Now this could be due to the fact that Clay has not allowed many base runners this season. But it could also point to another factor. A high LOB% could also point to a high degree of luck that Clay has benefited from.