Updated Top 10 Prospects

As you can see from the sidebar at left, we have updated the organization's top 10 prospect list. The rankings are compiled using a variety of scouting reports as well as minor league statistics, with heavy emphasis on the 2009 season. The rankings are as follows:

1. Casey Kelly

Kelly saw action on the mound and at shortstop, although his future is most certainly as a pitcher.

2. Ryan Westmoreland

In his first professional season Westmoreland posted a .401 on-base percentage and slugged .484. He was also 19-19 in stolen bases.

3. Josh Reddick

Reddick played well enough in Double-A to warrant a promotion to the majors. He posted a .382 wOBA and .871 OPS in Portland.

4. Michael Bowden

Bowden had somewhat of a down year in Triple-A. His 1.87 K/BB rate and 4.08 FIP were above his career averages. Still, Bowden is possibly the closest major league ready pitcher in the organization.

5. Junichi Tazawa

In his first professional season Tazawa quickly rose from Double-A to the majors. He made 18 starts for Portland with a 3.35 FIP and 3.38 K/BB rate. He also threw 25.1 innings with the Red Sox, allowing 43 hits and striking out 13 while walking 9.

6. Lars Anderson

Anderson began the year as the top prospect but faltered in his second go-around with Portland. His wOBA slipped to .315 and his ISO dropped to .112 after a breakout performance in 2008.

7. Ryan Kalish

Kalish had the biggest breakout in 2009. He tore up Advanced-A with a .513 slugging percentage and .428 wOBA. In Double-A he had a wOBA of .360 and slugged .440 while stealing 14 bags.

8. Stolmy Pimentel

The 19-year old exhibited excellent control while strikeout out nearly 8 batters per nine innings in Single-A. He had a 3.62 FIP in 117.2 innings.

9. Anthony Rizzo

Rizzo split time between Single-A and Advanced-A posting wOBAs of .390 and .357 respectively. His power is still developing but with his 6'3 220 pounds frame he should be able to generate more home run power in the future.

10. Ryan Lavarnway

Lavarnway has massive power and belted 21 home runs to go along a with a .255 ISO this season in Single-A. He was a little old for the competition level so it should be interesting to see how well he retains his power at higher levels.

Bowden's poor outing

Michael Bowden's line last night against the Yankees:

2 IP, 8 hits, 7 runs, 3 walks, 0 strikeouts, 1 wild pitch, 1 hr allowed. He needed 63 pitches to record just 6 outs.

Bowden's fastball appeared to be very straight last night which might explain why he was so hittable

The pitchfx, courtesy of Brooks Baseball, also shows us that Bowden stayed away from both righties and lefties suggesting that perhaps Bowden was afraid to challenge hitters

Assessing Michael Bowden

Michael Bowden's 3.20 ERA suggests that he is having a solid season. However, further analysis will reveal that Bowden has been extremely lucky this season.

Bowden's FIP is 4.16, not too bad, but his xFIP (which adjusts for league average home run rates) is a poor 4.92 and his tRA is 4.44. These numbers suggest Bowden is pitching over his head and he should regress back towards these numbers. xFIP in particular is good at predicting future ERA.

Bowden's walks are at a career high 3.36 per nine and his strikeout to walk ratio has diminished to 1.91. He has been fortunate that his BABIP is a low .254. This is unseasonably low and should spike back up towards .300 in the future.

Red Sox Pitching Prospects | Pitcher Abuse Points

Two of the Sox highly touted pitching prospects, Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden are both having promising years in AAA right now. At 24 and 22 years old respectively they each have a chance at long careers ahead of them, chance being the keyword. Pitchers, more so than any other position, are prone to injuries, especially if they have been overused early on in their careers.

Neither Buchholz nor Bowden have exceeded 100 pitches in a start this season. Bowden has thrown 90+ pitches in just 6 of his 16 starts (38%) topping out at 98 pitches. Buchholz high pitch count this year has been 96, which he has thrown twice.

However, Buchholz has thrown over 100 pitches in each of the past 2 seasons while up with the big club in Boston. In 2007 Buchholz threw 115 pitches during his no-hitter, a PAP score of 3,375 and a stress rating of 29.35. In 2008 he 103, 113, and 107 pitches. His PAP scores were 27, 2197, and 343 and his stress scores in each of those starts were .26, 19.44, and 3.21. So in two seasons Buchholz has registered two category-3 starts (between 110-122 pitches). This may not seem like much, but this could potentially have implications down the line for Clay.

It is vital the Red Sox continue to monitor their young pitching. If you can successfully limit the number of pitches per start then the prospects will be able to throw more innings and be more effective in the future.

Bowden Struggles

Bowden's rough outing last night, in which he lasted just 1 inning giving up 6 runs, signals the kind of problems Bowden has been having this year. In his 5 minor league seasons, Bowden has maintained a K-BB ratio of 3.30, but this year its down to 1.72. His K/9 are down from his average of 8.2 to just 5.9 while his walks are up nearly 1 per 9 innings (3.5 BB/9 this season). Bowden's FIP this season is 4.21, although his BABIP remains low at .250. Bowden's GB/AO rate is also near career lows at .60.

Its appears the problem lies with his lack of strikeouts and increase in walks. As with any strikeout pitcher, K's and and control are key, and right now Bowden is lacking both. This could be more of a mechanical issue than anything else.