Casey Kelly to become a full-time pitcher

Casey Kelly and the Red Sox will abandon the shortstop experiment and focus full-time on pitching.

"We feel like he has a chance to pitch in the upper Minors and he's talented," said Epstein. "He could, if everything breaks his way, force his way on to the Major League radar screen sometime in the next year or two. We think he'll benefit from being in the big league atmosphere and working with [pitching coach] John Farrell, from seeing how Jon Lester and Josh Beckett, among others, go about their business, as he completes this transition of being a full-time pitcher."

As I referenced in a previous article, Kelly projects as a solid starting pitcher in the major leagues. He has excellent command and finesse for a pitcher of his age and experience level.

A closer look at Casey Kelly

One of the more intriguing two-way prospects in the minor leagues is Red Sox shortstop and pitcher Casey Kelly. Kelly, just 20 years of age, was a first round pick in 2008 out of Sarasota High School.

He made his debut in 2008 as a shortstop and in 130 at-bats between Rookie-A and Low-A he struggled with a .255 on-base percentage and .331 slugging percentage. He walked just six times and struck out a whopping 42 times.

He began the 2009 season in the starting rotation in the South Atlantic League (Single-A). He was dominant in his nine starts and quickly was promoted to Advanced-A where he enjoyed similar success in eight starts at that level. In 95 combined innings Kelly registered a 2.73 FIP and had a remarkable 4.63 strikeout to walk rate.

The Red Sox organization made a conscious to shut Kelly down following his Futures Game appearance and he was the re-assigned to the Gulf Coast League to adjust back to playing shortstop for the remainder of the season. Once again Kelly struggled at the plate. In his 162 at-bats with the Rookie-A and Single-A teams. He posted a disappointing .302 on-base percentage and a .340 slugging percentage. He is currently playing for the Mesa Solar Sox of the Arizona Fall League.

Kelly has continually expressed a desire to be an everyday player, however, after his success on the mound and struggle at the plate the two-way experiment is likely to end next season. Offensively he is very raw. He possesses power potential but his swing is rather long and he has yet to show much plate discipline. He is very athletic (he turned down a chance to play football at Tennessee) and a smooth, fluid fielder but his large frame might be better suited for third base if he continues to be an everyday player.

Kelly clearly shows the most promise as a right-handed pitcher. He has a fresh arm and has excellent control of his offerings. He throws three pitches, a fastball, curve ball, and change-up. His low-nineties fastball rates as only average but his hard, 12-6 curve ball is a true plus pitch. He will also mixes in his heavy sinking change. He has solid command of all three pitches and shows poise and mound presence beyond his years. He does a nice job of keeping the ball low in the zone.

My concern about Kelly is that he will be reluctant to make the necessary steps to becoming a full-time pitcher. There were reports that he would only sign with a major league team if he was allowed to play shortstop and he clearly wants to play there. While the Red Sox have given him his shot, he has shown much more potential as a pitcher. Soon he will need to focus primarily on pitching and this is a change he will need to wholly embrace.

Updated Top 10 Prospects

As you can see from the sidebar at left, we have updated the organization's top 10 prospect list. The rankings are compiled using a variety of scouting reports as well as minor league statistics, with heavy emphasis on the 2009 season. The rankings are as follows:

1. Casey Kelly

Kelly saw action on the mound and at shortstop, although his future is most certainly as a pitcher.

2. Ryan Westmoreland

In his first professional season Westmoreland posted a .401 on-base percentage and slugged .484. He was also 19-19 in stolen bases.

3. Josh Reddick

Reddick played well enough in Double-A to warrant a promotion to the majors. He posted a .382 wOBA and .871 OPS in Portland.

4. Michael Bowden

Bowden had somewhat of a down year in Triple-A. His 1.87 K/BB rate and 4.08 FIP were above his career averages. Still, Bowden is possibly the closest major league ready pitcher in the organization.

5. Junichi Tazawa

In his first professional season Tazawa quickly rose from Double-A to the majors. He made 18 starts for Portland with a 3.35 FIP and 3.38 K/BB rate. He also threw 25.1 innings with the Red Sox, allowing 43 hits and striking out 13 while walking 9.

6. Lars Anderson

Anderson began the year as the top prospect but faltered in his second go-around with Portland. His wOBA slipped to .315 and his ISO dropped to .112 after a breakout performance in 2008.

7. Ryan Kalish

Kalish had the biggest breakout in 2009. He tore up Advanced-A with a .513 slugging percentage and .428 wOBA. In Double-A he had a wOBA of .360 and slugged .440 while stealing 14 bags.

8. Stolmy Pimentel

The 19-year old exhibited excellent control while strikeout out nearly 8 batters per nine innings in Single-A. He had a 3.62 FIP in 117.2 innings.

9. Anthony Rizzo

Rizzo split time between Single-A and Advanced-A posting wOBAs of .390 and .357 respectively. His power is still developing but with his 6'3 220 pounds frame he should be able to generate more home run power in the future.

10. Ryan Lavarnway

Lavarnway has massive power and belted 21 home runs to go along a with a .255 ISO this season in Single-A. He was a little old for the competition level so it should be interesting to see how well he retains his power at higher levels.

What to Look for in the 2nd Half

Stolmy Pimentel will continue to dominate

Pimentel has been awfully stingy this year with a FIP of 2.58 despite a BAABIP of a whopping .372. Pimentel has been the recipient of some poor defense (or bad luck) and is still mowing down opposing lineups. His LOB% is right around 70% which is just average. If Pimentel's BAABIP regresses back towards the mean of .300 in the second half he could be even better in the second half of the year.

Lars Anderson will prove he is worthy of the #1 prospect in the organization

Although I'm sure few fans doubt his credentials as a premier first baseman prospect, Anderson's power has been inexplicably down so far this season. Have no fear though, as Anderson's BABIP, LD%, and FB% are all in line with his career averages. In fact, so far through July Anderson has an OPS of .943

Casey Kelly will realize he belongs on the mound

Believe me when I say that I would love to see Kelly thrive at shortstop. The organization has a shortage of talented middle infielders. However, during his brief appearances at short last season between the Gulf Coast Red Sox and Lowell we realized one thing; he walks too little and strikes out too much. HIs K% was just under 30% while his BB% was around 4%. Now granted this was in only 141 PA and many young players struggle with plate discipline, but most young prospects do not pitch as well as Kelly does. He posted a 2.14 FIP in Greenville and a 3.33 FIP in Salem. Not to mention his combined 4.63 K/BB rate. His impeccable command as a pitcher is what makes him such a promising prospect.

Casey Kelly Futures Game PitchFX

Casey kelly threw a perfect inning during his appearance in the Futures Game. It will be his last pitching appearance of the season as he has been assigned to the Gulf Coast League where he will transition to shortstop for the remainder of the year.

Data courtesy of brooksbaseball.net

League Adjusted ERA

ERA+ can be a useful tool in comparing a pitcher's ERA versus the league average. Thanks to the league average information provided by the Red Sox Stats Blog, I was able to compute each player's league adjusted ERAs. An ERA+ over 100 indicates better performance than the league average and vice versa for under 100.

Using this statistic I compared several of the Sox top pitching prospects (stats are not park adjusted).

AAA- International League (lg ERA 3.85)

Michael Bowden-- 116

Clay Buchholz-- 182

AA- Eastern League (lg ERA 3.88)

Felix Doubront-- 109

Junichi Tazawa-- 124

Adv. A- Carolina League (lg ERA 4.07)

Casey Kelly-- 202

Kyle Weiland-- 99

A- South Atlantic League (lg ERA 3.63

Casey Kelly-- 324

Stolmy Pimentel-- 131

Brock Huntzinger-- 101

This really puts into perspective the dominating performance by Casey Kelly at both levels this year. Dominance may be an understatement in his case. Although we had no doubt his season was spectacular, ERA+ allows us to compare him to his peers and see that he is out-pitching his league by a wide margin.

Red Sox Minor League Mid-Season Report

C Tim Federowicz

Federowicz earned a recent promotion to Salem after dominating the Carolina League. He is posting a .979 OPS and an impressive .579 slugging percentage. He leads all Red Sox minor leaguers with 11 homeruns and also has a Gross Production Average of .317.

1B Anthony Rizzo

Rizzo, just 19 years old, also was recently promoted to Salem. Rizzo had an OPS of .859 with Greenville. His extra base hit % was an outstanding 41%. His wOBA was .374 and his secondary average was .302.

2B Ryan Khoury

Khoury's .378 OBP and 15% walk rate stand out here. Although he is struggling from the plate a bit, his secondary average is still .315.

3B Jorge Jimenez

Jimenez sports a .811 OPS and .369 wOBA. He has also drawn nearly as many walks (24) as strikeouts (30), an impressive feat for a young hitter.

SS Oscar Tejeda

From an offensive statistics standpoint, this is the organization's weakest position. Tejeda gets the nod here, although his .310 wOBA and .351 slugging are from good.

OF Josh Reddick

Reddick has since cooled off from his blistering start, but his overall stat line is still impressive. He is slugging .514. His secondart average is .354 and his wOBA stands at .373.

OF Che-Hsuan Lin

Lin's .361 OBP and speed (16 sb) make him an interesting prospect. His plate discipline is well-beyond his experience level and he is drawing walks at a rate of nearly 13%.. His speed also translates to stellar range in the outfield.

OF Dave Mailman

Mailman's performance in Greenville earned him a promotion to Salem this past week.. He posted a .824 OPS with the Drive. He had a secA of .297 and also stole 10 bases in 12 tries.

DH Aaron Bates

Bates has come back down to earth since his call-up to Pawtucket; however, for the season he still has a combined OPS of .818 and a .370 OBP. Bates isn't walking as much this season, but his raw power is still there and it should be just a mater of time before he adjusts to AAA pitching.

Honorable Mention

Mark Wagner

Ryan Lavarnway

SP Stolmy Pimentel

Pimentel's 2.70 FIP is impressive especially despite allowing a .378 BABIP. Just 19 years old, Pimentel has averaged over 8 Ks per 9 innings this season.

SP Clay Buchholz

Buchholz' 1.90 ERA and 3.13 K/BB ratio. His WHIP is .92. His BABIP is absurdly low at .212 which suggests it may be hard for him to continue his dominance, but Buchholz will continue to showcase his stuff for the front office.

SP Casey Kelly

Kelly will likely switch back to shortstop soon after the all-star break, but his future appears brightest on the mound. Between Greenville and Salem this season he has a 3.14 FIP and a 4.6 K/BB rate. His command has been superb, as is his 4.3% HR/F rate.

Mid-Season MVP -- Tim Federowicz

Mid-Season Cy Young -- Casey Kelly

Surprise Prospect -- Anthony Rizzo

Disappointing Prospect -- Michael Almanzar

Casey Kelly | Hitter or Pitcher Prospect?

Casey Kelly is rapidly becoming one of the Red Sox top prospects in the organization. Kelly was a first round pick out of Sarasota High School in 2008. The Red Sox originally liked him as a pitcher, but he played in Lowell last season at shortstop. This year he switched back to the mound and has dominated. The plan for Kelly this year is to throw 95 innings before going back to shortstop to finish out the season.

Between Salem and Greenville Kelly has a combined FIP of 2.76 in 71 innings. His BABIP is a stingy .245 between both levels and his WHIP is .85. Kelly has maintained superb control for a pitcher of his young age and experience level, with a K-BB ratio of 5.8 (58K-10BB) and in 4 starts in High-A Salem he has struck out 19 batters and walked only 1. His HR/F % is a minuscule 2.8%. Kelly has been particularly hard on right-handed hitters limiting them to .188 BA and .228 BABIP.

Last year Kelly split time between the Gulf Coast Red Sox Rookie team and the Lowell Spinners. In 36 games Kelly had an OPS of .586 and struck out 6 times versus 42 strikeouts. His K% was a staggering 32%, yet his BABIP .344. His SecA was a weary .162. However, in his brief 9 game stint with Lowell he posted a slugging percentage of .563 and an ISO of .219. His defense was pretty solid, posting a 3.90 range factor per game. His play in Lowell was encouraging, but at this point it is pretty apparent his future in on the mound. His plate discipline is lagging, and aside from that, his pitching has been down right dominant this season.

Red Sox Prospect Casey Kelly

Casey Kelly, the Sox 1st round pick in 2008, has been named to Baseball America's Prospect Hot Sheet. Kelly came in at #5 after throwing 10 scoreless innings for Greenville. Kelly played shortstop last year for Lowell hitting .344 but made the transition to pitcher this year and has had immediate success.

"Kelly is a prospect as both a pitcher and a shortstop, but the Red Sox have to be thrilled with the early returns on Kelly's pitching career. The team's first-round pick from the 2008 draft spent last season playing shortstop and didn't debut as a pitcher until this spring. So far, he's yet to allow a run in this first three professional pitching outings, having thrown five shutout innings in each of them. Kelly's command has been superb as he's given up only 10 hits in 15 innings and issued just two walks while fanning 12. He's also earned high marks for his composure and presence on the mound, which isn't too surprising for someone who's the son of a former big leaguer in Pat Kelly."