Lars Anderson Resurgence

Lars Anderson fell from elite prospect status after a dismal season in Portland. This year, after a strong start, he has already been promoted to Pawtucket.

It's tough to tell with such a small sample size ( 62 plate appearances in Double-A this year) but it appears a change in his approach has helped immensely.

In a small sample so far this year his line drive rate is 22.4%, GB 26.5%, and fly ball is 51.0%. These are far cry from his minor league averages of 16.2%, 53.0%, and 30.4%. Now I try not to read too much into this because we do not have a reliable sample size yet for 2010 and there is probably no way he can retain such a high line drive rate but it does appear he is driving the ball much more this season.

The organization obviously noted his improvement as well and moved him up accordingly. Boston is struggling to fill the DH void and this move could bode well for Anderson's future in Boston.

He will be challenged in Triple-A after spending parts of 3 seasons stalled in Double-A. We'll continue to monitor his development closely.

Updated Top 10 Prospects

As you can see from the sidebar at left, we have updated the organization's top 10 prospect list. The rankings are compiled using a variety of scouting reports as well as minor league statistics, with heavy emphasis on the 2009 season. The rankings are as follows:

1. Casey Kelly

Kelly saw action on the mound and at shortstop, although his future is most certainly as a pitcher.

2. Ryan Westmoreland

In his first professional season Westmoreland posted a .401 on-base percentage and slugged .484. He was also 19-19 in stolen bases.

3. Josh Reddick

Reddick played well enough in Double-A to warrant a promotion to the majors. He posted a .382 wOBA and .871 OPS in Portland.

4. Michael Bowden

Bowden had somewhat of a down year in Triple-A. His 1.87 K/BB rate and 4.08 FIP were above his career averages. Still, Bowden is possibly the closest major league ready pitcher in the organization.

5. Junichi Tazawa

In his first professional season Tazawa quickly rose from Double-A to the majors. He made 18 starts for Portland with a 3.35 FIP and 3.38 K/BB rate. He also threw 25.1 innings with the Red Sox, allowing 43 hits and striking out 13 while walking 9.

6. Lars Anderson

Anderson began the year as the top prospect but faltered in his second go-around with Portland. His wOBA slipped to .315 and his ISO dropped to .112 after a breakout performance in 2008.

7. Ryan Kalish

Kalish had the biggest breakout in 2009. He tore up Advanced-A with a .513 slugging percentage and .428 wOBA. In Double-A he had a wOBA of .360 and slugged .440 while stealing 14 bags.

8. Stolmy Pimentel

The 19-year old exhibited excellent control while strikeout out nearly 8 batters per nine innings in Single-A. He had a 3.62 FIP in 117.2 innings.

9. Anthony Rizzo

Rizzo split time between Single-A and Advanced-A posting wOBAs of .390 and .357 respectively. His power is still developing but with his 6'3 220 pounds frame he should be able to generate more home run power in the future.

10. Ryan Lavarnway

Lavarnway has massive power and belted 21 home runs to go along a with a .255 ISO this season in Single-A. He was a little old for the competition level so it should be interesting to see how well he retains his power at higher levels.

Diagnozing Lars Anderson

Lars Anderson was heralded as one of the premier hitting prospects in the game, but his season has been a disappointment thus far with a batting line of .242/.334/.360.

While his strikeouts and walks are about in line with his past results, his BABIP (.311) is significantly lower than his career mark (.387).

There is also a huge discrepency between his home and road splits. At home this season he his hitting .295/.381/.416 but on the road that becomes a poor .195/.289/.303. This is despite the fact that he his hitting 5.5% more line drives on the road and 7.9% more ground balls at home.

A quick look at the 2008 park factors for Portland's home field indicates that it plays pretty much neutral. The rest of the Eastern league favors pitchers slightly, but not to the extremes that are reflected in Anderson's splits. It could be something as simple as feeling more comfortable playing at home.

What to Look for in the 2nd Half

Stolmy Pimentel will continue to dominate

Pimentel has been awfully stingy this year with a FIP of 2.58 despite a BAABIP of a whopping .372. Pimentel has been the recipient of some poor defense (or bad luck) and is still mowing down opposing lineups. His LOB% is right around 70% which is just average. If Pimentel's BAABIP regresses back towards the mean of .300 in the second half he could be even better in the second half of the year.

Lars Anderson will prove he is worthy of the #1 prospect in the organization

Although I'm sure few fans doubt his credentials as a premier first baseman prospect, Anderson's power has been inexplicably down so far this season. Have no fear though, as Anderson's BABIP, LD%, and FB% are all in line with his career averages. In fact, so far through July Anderson has an OPS of .943

Casey Kelly will realize he belongs on the mound

Believe me when I say that I would love to see Kelly thrive at shortstop. The organization has a shortage of talented middle infielders. However, during his brief appearances at short last season between the Gulf Coast Red Sox and Lowell we realized one thing; he walks too little and strikes out too much. HIs K% was just under 30% while his BB% was around 4%. Now granted this was in only 141 PA and many young players struggle with plate discipline, but most young prospects do not pitch as well as Kelly does. He posted a 2.14 FIP in Greenville and a 3.33 FIP in Salem. Not to mention his combined 4.63 K/BB rate. His impeccable command as a pitcher is what makes him such a promising prospect.

Lars Anderson Heat Check

David Ortiz is not the only Sox slugger heating up after a slow start. Lars Anderson, the Red Sox top prospect in the organization, has seen a dramatic increase in his numbers in recent weeks.

Over the last 2 weeks, he has hit .340 with a babip of .421. His line drive percentage is up 4.3% during this span (17.9% compared to a season average of 13.6%). He seems to have responded positively to a recent drop in the lineup to the 5th spot. When batting 5th, Anderson has an OPS of 1.118, compared to .728 when hitting 3rd in the order.

Some other interesting observations regarding Anderson. He is a much better hitter against relievers than starters. His OBP against starters is a pedestrian .274, but against relievers its .427. His BB-K ratio versus starters is .23 (17 BB-31 K) compared to a ratio of 1 (17 BB-17 K) against relievers.

Lars has also drawn noticeably more walks at home this season. He has walked at a rate of 13.4% per PA at home compared to just 7.8% per PA on the road. Perhaps this is why he has had more success batting at home this season.

Statistics obtained from minorleaguesplits.com