An Early Look at the Rookie of the Year Candidates

As we approach the All-Star break I thought it would be timely to check out how the rookies are faring. Although promising prospects Matt Wieters, David Price, Gordon Beckham, Andrew McCutchen, and Tommy Hanson were called up later than others they should not be ruled out of the Rookie of the Year contention just yet. Ryan Braun and Ryan Howard each won the award after receiving a call-up during May. For our purposes I just looked at rookies who have made significant contributions to their teams so far.

American League

The AL has been dominating by rookie pitching so far this season. Oakland closer Andrew Bailey is second highest rookie VORP at 16.5. Bailey leads rookies with 8 saves and sports an impressive 2.90 FIP. Bailey has struck out 10.15 batters per 9 innings and maintains a K/BB ratio of 2.78.

Detroit’s Rick Porcello won American League Rookie of the Month for the Month of May. Porcello, just 20 years old, has the highest VORP among rookie pitchers at 17.5. Although his 8-4 record and 3.55 ERA are impressive, his FIP is a rather pedestrian 4.82 and his K/BB rate is 1.63. Porcello has been very effective at inducing groundball outs with a GB/AO rate of 2.68 which is the second highest in the MLB.

Matt Palmer of the LA Angels is off to an impressive 6-1 record, although his other numbers do not suggest he has been having such success. His FIP stands at 4.71 and his K/BB ratio is a mediocre 1.48 and his VORP is just 6.5

Baltimore has a pair of rookie starters who have had some success. Koji Uehara, a Japanese export, has adjusted nicely to the MLB with a 3.52 FIP. He also holds an impressive 4.00 K/BB ratio. Brad Bergesen is also having a strong showing early with a 4.43 FIP. He has a 2.06 K/BB ratio and a .276 BABIP. Bergesen’s VORP is also high at 15.2.

Baltimore’s Nolan Reimold has been the best rookie hitter in the AL this year with an OPS of .884 and a .250 ISO. Reimold has also showcased his plate discipline; drawing walks at a rate of 11.2% and a .382 wOBA.

Others who may be in consideration are Matt Wieters (Baltimore), David Price ( Tampa Bay), Elvis Andrus (Texas) and Gordon Beckham (Chicago)

Verdict

Andrew Bailey has been dominating to this point and is the most deserving candidate in the American League thus far. However, it will be very hard for him to maintain the .238 BABIP. His Z-Contact % is 71.8%, well below the league average of 87.7%, which indicates that he has been able to make plenty of batters miss this season, but these numbers will be difficult for him to replicate throughout the season.

National League

Seth Smith of the Colorado Rockies leads all rookies with a .927 OPS. He also has an ISO of .197 and a wOBA at .412. Smith’s plate discipline is among the best in the league for rookies. He walks at a staggering 18.1% rate and has a BB/K ratio of 1.23. Smith has also played pretty good defense in left field posting a 3.6 UZR. Smith’s 13.4 VORP is highest among rookie position players. However, Smith has been platooning in Colorado’s outfield and hasn’t been given the playing time that his numbers suggest he deserves.

Another Rockies’ outfielder Dexter Fowler is also vying for the ROY. Fowler’s numbers are not nearly as impressive as his teammate Smith’s are, but they are still strong enough for consideration. He has a .759 OPS and a great BB rate at 12.7%. He has also swiped 13 bags this year.

Chicago Cubs pitcher Randy Well has a 3.01 FIP through 8 starts this year. He also had a 3.18 K/BB ratio and a VORP of 15.7.

Colby Rasmus is many people’s favorite to win the ROY crown. Rasmus has been with the Cardinals since Opening Day and is slugging .447 although his OBP is a feeble .312. Rasmus has a K/BB rate of just .28 and his VORP is 7.0. He has played very solid defense this season with a UZR of 11.6.

New York Mets catcher Omir Santos his hitting .290 with an OPS of .773 and an ISO of .169. Although he has a very low walk rate, his numbers are solid for a rookie catcher.

Others who may be in the race are Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh), Ramon Troncoso (Los Angeles), Tommy Hanson (Atlanta) and Casey McGehee (Milwaukee).

Verdict

Seth Smith’s numbers are vastly superior to any other NL rookie candidate. What’s more impressive is that he is doing putting together this season despite sharing time in the outfield. Even if Smith regresses a little his batting line will likely trounce that of any competitors.

* Statistics are from fangraphs.com and baseballprospectus.com