Assessing Michael Bowden

Michael Bowden's 3.20 ERA suggests that he is having a solid season. However, further analysis will reveal that Bowden has been extremely lucky this season.

Bowden's FIP is 4.16, not too bad, but his xFIP (which adjusts for league average home run rates) is a poor 4.92 and his tRA is 4.44. These numbers suggest Bowden is pitching over his head and he should regress back towards these numbers. xFIP in particular is good at predicting future ERA.

Bowden's walks are at a career high 3.36 per nine and his strikeout to walk ratio has diminished to 1.91. He has been fortunate that his BABIP is a low .254. This is unseasonably low and should spike back up towards .300 in the future.