Thursday, August 27, 2009

Identifying flukey performance

Wilfred Pichardo is putting up solid numbers for Lowell this season hitting .299/.352/.388.

The 19-year old outfielder is lightning fast and has stolen 23 bases this season (43 last year) while also avoiding double-plays (just two in two seasons).

However, Pichardo's success is fueled by an unsustainable BABIP of .430 (tops in the NY-Penn League). While it is reasonable to expect a speedy slap hitter like Pichardo to have a higher BABIP than others, this mark is well above a reasonable level. There is no way Pichardo will be able to maintain this type of luck in the future.

His .25 BB/K ratio suggests that he can stand to be a more patient hitter and he could benefit greatly from doing so.

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