Wednesday, December 9, 2009

The usefulness of college baseball statistics

I asked Mr. Bill James the following question on his website, BJOL.

Me: Mr. James, I'm hoping to conduct a study regarding the usefulness of college statistics for a college class next semester. I was wondering what your thoughts were regarding the matter. Have you done any previous studies on the how these statistics translate into pro ball?

BJ: I have studied that at considerable length. I can't tell you the POSITIVE things I might know, because those would be property of the Red Sox, but I can tell with a fair degree of confidence that I do not believe it is possible to project professional hitting accomplishments based on college statistics, for two reasons. First, the metal bats DO make it a significantly different game. And second, the distance that hitting ability must be projected from college to the majors introduces a high degree of unreliability. You're projecting players from a competition level at which no player or virtually no player is at a major league level of ability in any phase of the game. It's very different from projecting players from Double-A or Triple-A, where there are many players who ARE major league in three or four phases of their game, but just missing a couple of elements.

This is about the response I had expected. I would be very curious to see what positive things he has found out. I still maintain the hypothesis that certain collegiate numbers can have some predictive value, especially strikeout and walk numbers since these are not as influenced by the metal bats (although strength of competition may factor in here). I hope to study this in the near future and find out if in fact my hypothesis holds true.

I would like to thank Mr. James for taking the time to answer my question.

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