Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Can college baseball statistics predict future success?

This is a question I am in the middle of trying to answer. While compiling and sifting through the data is a long, cumbersome process I hope the results can reveal something worthwhile.

Basically, I am taking all the raw college data I could gather (huge thanks to Boyds World for this) and adjusting if for strength of schedule and park factors. Once this is completed I will then input player's minor league stats and possibly MLB stats. I was thinking that it would be best to use data from the same seasons meaning a guy who played college and then was drafted and played minor league ball in the same year.

Once I have all this data I will use regression techniques and see what I come up with. My initial hypothesis is that plate discipline will have the strongest correlation into pro ball. I will be curious to see what results, if any, pitchers generate. Unfortunately, I only have raw data and no batted ball tendencies. Jeff Sackmann has done some nice work with this data over at TheHardball Times and collegesplits.com.

I plan on sharing my results when finally completed, but I anticipate this project will take several more months to complete so stay tuned.

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